According to the economic theory behind tarrifs this strengthens them. Funny how we are trying to do the same thing to ourselves.
Actually it might take them less than 10 years to catch up. I was at ICCAD (https://iccad.com) last week and half the papers were from China. And some of the EDA CAD software is under export controls - specifically Gate-all-around technology used in 2nm and below. Right now the big EDA vendors have developers in China who are making the software they're not allowed to sell in THEIR OWN COUNTRY.
China is basically where Japan was in the 1970s and Korea in the 1980s. Only 10 years before they become dominant in the industry.
To top it all off, a lot of this stuff is patented. Not that China cares all that much about Western patents, but violations in this area would make the geopolitical situation even more tense.
"China doesn’t have have that either—the optics (mirrors), the light source, the masks, everything under vacuum" are you really sure about that?
Let me help you here, a lot of this stuff are in Chinese universities. But not commercialized, cuz there is no commercial fly wheel when there are perfectly fine products on the market. Now you just gave $1B dollars to these researchers to bring it to market. This will take time, but this is an engineering, iterate and trial problem, not inventing quantum mechanics. The demand is always there, people who get it get a life time of wealth, what do you think?
Then there’s integration and SW. Not to mention performance, metrology, diagnostics.
Now you have to actually integrate these new tools into a new leading node process. This by itself takes years, assuming you have the tools. China does have existing Immersion process nodes, but still.
Even with unlimited resources, I claim China can’t have EUV within 10 years. Maybe not even 20.
I recall a similar scenario: China can't make reliable transmission powertrain either. Then EV happened.
What?
Serious interest here. Can anyone else verify that the Chinese don't have the ability to develop and manufacture these chips?
That's stunning. I had no idea that was the case.
Or is this just a, "they don't manufacture computer chips" kind of thing. Which, strategically speaking, is critically different than, "they don't know how".
Is it good for anyone who wants to manufacture chips in China. Obviously, yes it is good for them. But it is not good, in the short term, for people who want to buy chips in China.
But it might be bad for everyone in China, because someone above implied that they actually don't have the knowledge to make these chips. Not sure how true that is? But assuming it is true, that would hurt everyone in China.
That's the point. You can't effectively sanction china.
> where the tariff is effectively infinite making the amount supplied go to zero
There is a difference between a complete blockade and targeted sanctions.
> this should be even better for the country affected?
One causes a complete collapse of an economy (north korea) while the latter helps a nation build up a sector of an industry (china).
China is the top trading partner of most countries around the world. Even with these sanctions. Go figure. It would be like if china banned exports of 'rare earth minerals' to the US. It would only make the US stronger because we'd just invest in mining rare earth minerals.