So the theory is that the Democrats while out of power stole the election and then when in power didn’t steal it?
Here’s another theory: the candidate with betting polling in 2020 won and the candidate with better polling in 2024 won.
Here’s another theory: the candidate with betting polling in 2020 won and the candidate with better polling in 2024 won.
Control of the WH is immaterial because all voting is controlled by the states or local municipalities.
Another part is that the Republicans were much more prepared this time to stop the alleged fraud before it happened. They had lawyers ready to protest immediately when election judges were locked out of counting rooms or when counting stopped. They made sure they had enough election judges for all precincts and sometimes they set up cameras to count the number of voters entering the site.
Perhaps your point about polling is still the best answer
Deciding between the effort required for a political opponent to run a massive multi-state voter fraud conspiracy under your nose and the effort required for an over-the-top personality to make a wild accusation that was never proven in court, I think we can consult Occam’s Razor.
62 lawsuits in 9 states, 30 dismissed on merits, several from Trump appointed judges.
My recollection is that when the cases went to court, the lawyers backed away from claims of fraud: https://time.com/5914377/donald-trump-no-evidence-fraud/
Trump was consistently losing in all polls in 2020.
538 had Trump’s odds at 10%: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
Betting markets had him at ~35%: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/202...
Biden was favored in MI, WI, NV, PA, AZ, FL, NC and GA on Election Day meaning he had many paths to victory.
And polls were pretty accurate for Biden:
State - Polling Avg. (Result)
MI - 51.2% (50.6%)
WI - 52.1% (49.5%)
NV - 49.7% (50.1%)
PA - 50.2% (49.9%)
AZ - 48.7% (49.4%)
FL - 49.1% (47.9%)
NC - 48.9% (48.6%)
GA - 48.5% (49.5%)
The surprise wasn’t that Trump lost in 2020, is was that based on polling averages that he didn’t lose by more.
I do know that many of the "merits" you cite were never litigated. Were there any cases where the court granted discovery? So how can anyone guess at what a court would decide about the matter? Many of the news articles I read at the time suggested that the courts were just not interested in opening up cans of worms.
The polling average numbers are from Project 538. The dropdown lets you navigate to each state.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
The election results are from Wikipedia.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_president...
Look at PA polls: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general...
The last 2 polls had Harris at 49, and 48. She ended up at 48.5%. Last 2 polls for Trump were 50 and 49. He ended up at 50.5%.
https://apps.npr.org/2024-election-results/pennsylvania.html...
Similar story for Wisconsin, (Harris polls 49 and 48; result: 48.9% and Trump polls 50 and 49; result: 49.7%) and Michigan (Harris polls 48 and 48; result: 48.3% and Trump polls 50 and 50; result: 49.8%)
Despite the end result, it was really was a minor polling error away from a Harris victory.
Also, FWIW, the total 3rd party vote in WI and MI was greater than the margin of victory for Trump in those states.