Democrats need to understand: Americans think they're worse
economist.com
economist.com
Republicans had it way too easy, actually. It's the same with The Right in Germany. They are being auto-promoted by actors like von der Leyen, who blind specific population segments like moms and women who are trying to make it while negatively impacting any orbit they are assigned to and shoving tons of money to consultancies and the likes.
If Trump had won in 2020 and the economy was in the state it is now, I think it's very likely the democrat would have won. So much of our politics is circumstance, and if "Americans thought Democrats were worse" why did Biden get 7 million more votes than Trump in 2020. The #MeToo movement, BLM and most peak woke stuff happened during Trump's presidency and yet the country still chose the Democrats. Like most analysis of data, most of the takes over the next few weeks and months will be wrong.
I think in a sense a lot of what's happening is more of a spiritual argument than a political one. Who do people perceive will be more "normal" and "stable". Given the voices at the top of the Republican party, the next four years is bound for some overreactions, and Democrats will be perceived as the normal ones again.
This is not to say I don't think the Democrats have soul searching to do. I do think there are some gender alignments happening in Gen-Z an Gen-Alpha that need to be looked at, and the culture is constantly changing. The election of 2028 will be so much different than the election of 2024. But I think catastrophizing like this is also more click bait than anything tangible about "who is worse"
Was Kamala Harris supposed to say, "I too hate everything Joe Biden did for the economy, and I'm going to do the opposite of that"? That doesn't sound like a winning strategy.
Or perhaps "Here's a bunch of programs that I'd like to introduce, including even more student loan forgiveness, especially if you give me a Congress who can work with me?" She did do that. Nobody believes it.
Trump promised a few incoherent ideas, and I doubt anybody really gave a moment's thought to whether it's really a good idea to jack up tariffs. All he really needed to be was "not the same as the last guy", despite not having done so great as the previous guy.
The fact was that Joe Biden got saddled with an economy that people didn't like. There was little he could do about that, and nothing Harris said would change it.
Meanwhile, the next guy will inherit the fundamentally sound economy we've got going. Maybe he'll manage to actively screw it up, though it's really going to mostly succeed or fail based on external events. (Like Ukraine, the loss of Russian fossil fuels, a pandemic, etc. affected the economy for the past four years. Or maybe there'll be an AI boom comparable to the one Clinton got undeserved credit for in the 90s.)
So great, you all think you're worse off. There is absolutely no amount of "messaging" that's going to change that, and no set of programs you're suddenly going to believe will fix your problems if they haven't already.
And we get what we get. I've got every reason to think it's going to be terrible, and in four years they'll be looking for The Other Other Guy to save them from the bad decisions they made four years ago.
If the true enemy is the opposing ideology then the vileness of the candidate of your ideology is overlooked by many people. It’s not a good state of affairs for so many people to view an entire ideology as evil and the enemy.
Donald Trump is a piece of shit. So is Bill Clinton. AOC is a good person. So is Mitt Romney.
And the reason for financial distress is primarily a result of having no choice to elect anything but Democrats & Republicans, where both parties have proven to be financially reckless enough to compromise the wealth of a Nation. In a compounding way. That you may have to do the math to understand.
Now this is The Economist and they're trying as hard as they can to criticize Trump, including reminders of his well-recognized low-class behavior. Although it's well-deserved criticism, I wasn't going to pile it on, but there's still deceptive influence here that just adds to the ridiculously exaggerated hype when it comes to Trump's competency:
>With his sophisticated grasp of new and legacy media and his instinct for the basic needs and fears of many Americans,
Give me a break. Trump's closest professional associates have confirmed beyond doubt that he doesn't have a sophisticated grasp of very many things at all. Especially things like this that some people give him undue credit for. All he really did is appeal to an idolizing fanbase that grows by absorbing those who were less sophisticated than traditional Republicans used to be in general, and stoking them with additional fears that he can be praised over his exaggerated hatred for. That surely is very many Americans but it's strictly on the basis of the degree of idolization he can "feel" firsthand, nothing more sophisticated than that.
>Biden ... was ... no longer up to the demands of presidential communication that Mr Trump understands so well.
From what people see in the media, Biden may be bumbling, but there is a very wide consensus that most of what Trump displays is completely non-Presidential. Every President before him set a bar which he has never been able to come close to reaching.
>“Can you believe he endorsed me?” Mr Trump chortled at a rally in North Carolina on November 3rd, gloating over how Mr McConnell eventually fell into line. Mr Trump felt no obligation to reciprocate. “Hopefully we get rid of Mitch McConnell pretty soon,” he said.
I would say the odds are not zero that one day Trump may be saying this about Elon Musk :\
I am morbidly curious about he political battles over the next few years. A lot of disparate groups came together to get Trump elected, and a lot of those groups DO NOT agree with each other. Does the classical wing of the party trust the tech wing of the party? Vance and Thiel are Catholic, do the evangelicals work well with the catholics? Do Theil and Musk still have bad blood? Does Bannon still have power, and does he trust the tech wing? I would say objectively it seems like Musk and Trump would be a powerful duo and yet I can't imagine there's enough space in the party for the both of them. Do the tech bros and finance bros really have a lot in common with the blue collar wing of the party?
I imagine the hiring process will include a ton of political intrigue. Does a celebrity president want to put a celebrity like RFK JR in charge of anything? I wouldn't think so, he seems to independent a voice.
And the Trump followers can still be true-to-form and be completely optimistic about it anyway, while the opposition descends into an equivalent level of gloom over the same upcoming uncertainty.
Now this time this type uncertainty has a track record.
That could lay the foundations for professional gambling websites to start laying odds on which of the the initial cabinet members or advisors would be the first to go, and when. Plus when new contestants come in, it shakes up the odds so there's got to some opportunities there. I would think there's more counterparties that nobody has exploited yet, and there should be some completely opposite sympathy for any wager, even some that could be quite unrealistic during more stable administrations.
For all I know they were already doing it based on his track record of loving to fire people on TV. Or strongly inspiring some employees and contractors to work harder than ever so they end up moving on to better things on their own initiative, by not paying them :\