Argentina bans dollar purchases for savings
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
Incidentally, Argentina must do this because they have no access to foreign capital markets due to things like seizure of YPF, devaluation of the peso in 2001, and failure to pay back the lenders they still owe, etc. Foreign currency reserves just keep dwindling. As China slows down and demand for soybeans drops, Argentina is really, really going to have a hard time. So though it seems crazy there is some "reason" for it (I'm not trying to make a political comment, I personally think it's crazy and they should radically open the market, but my point is that it's not exclusively xenophobia that is driving this policy).
Unfortunately the policy just pushes the trade to the black market. One of the interesting things here is that if you need pesos, and you have some access to USD, you make an instant 20-25% on your money. The "black market" (they call it "blue" here because it seems nicer) continues to diverge. If you're a hobbyist economist like myself, it's really fascinating to watch market risk priced into a currency in realtime as seen by the "blue"-vs-official rate spread.
What I am wondering is, with a depressed economy like that in Argentina, what is crime and personal safety like? I am particularly wondering about violent crimes for money, because how people react to a bad economy is determined quite strongly by culture and not just the economic situation alone.
If you are Argentinian you know why the economy was growing since 2002: A local minima on previous years, devaluation, Soy and other commodities rising more than 2x and the farm sector investment on improving the efficiency with technology.
Obviously nobody (that I know) see the future.
http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2011/results/
I hear they kill entrepreneurs there too.
Also, it should be noted that the word "entrepreneur" has a far different history in Russia than it does in the West. Many entrepreneurs got started in the 80s as "cooperatives" selling cheaply made jeans and other consumer goods in open air markets to a populace that had cash but little consumer goods to spend it on. This kind of private "profiteering" was illegal in the USSR thus the people doing this were already breaking the law and were getting used to getting away with this "crime." With the collapse of the USSR many of these groups expanded into other businesses- currency exchange, car sales, etc. Unfortunately, since the roots were illegal, many of the 80s entrepreneurs came from the elements of society that were willing to risk breaking the law to make money- often these people had a different view of competition- rather than make a better product or offer lower prices, it was much easier to beat up or sometimes kill your competition. As the 80s transitioned into the 90s, the violent groups became more and more powerful, with the early 90s becoming associated with open warfare among these groups. Those that survived into the late 90s, turned into legitimate businessmen - gone were the illicit activities, now these guys run banks, shopping centers, dealerships, real estate firms, etc. However many of them do have blood on their hands (and I'm not even talking about the large scale oligarchs and how they got their wealth)- should they be allowed to get away with murder or theft?
How do I know this (other than a general interest in the subject)? My dad was intimately involved with the cooperatives in the 80s, we fled to the US during the early 90s, some of his friends (and sometimes their families) that remained in business didn't survive. I remember going back home in the mid-90s when things were still a bit crazy and driving through the city with armed escorts- some of the stories that I heard would raise the hair on your neck.
Russia's peers are India, Canada, Spain, and Australia, 3 of which (CSA) are markedly less corrupt. Even India rates 3.1 to Russia's 2.4.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G8 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi...
"Badly run countries"? Zimbabwe maybe, but for Venezuela and Russia, I beg to differ. They are doing things THEIR way, not the US/neo-liberals way that would like a better slice of the pie, but Venezuela is much better off than all the dictatorships and banana republics in the region, and Russia is way better than when Yeltsin did things that benefited certain foreign interests...
Are you aware that most of the products we consume here are imported? Venezuela almost does not produce anything other than oil.
So , the clothes you buy, the medicines,food,etc,etc, everything has to be imported. Not everyone gets access to dollars from the government , so you have to buy dollars in the black market to import products. This causes the 25-28% yearly inflation rate we have. In the end, the people pay the price.
The solution from the government against the black market rate : make it illegal to even talk about the black market rate. Basically,censor it.
I hardly think that is the proper way to run an economy.
As soon as oil prices went down, our economy started shrinking.
When oil prices are lower, the government cannot keep the fake value of the Bolivar and they have to devalue. In the end, the people pay the price with ultra-high inflation rates (28% in 2011).
Interesting how you (and many foreigners) call us neo-liberals, but liberals here insist it's neo-cons ruining the world.
The government even went as far to block websites that published the black market rate online. You can imagine how effective that was.
These kind of controls only generate corruption in the end. Its widely known that if you are willing to pay enough and know the right people in the government, you can get dollars assigned at the official rate for anything you want.
For big sums it is not that hard to find a "cueva" (cave)
The reasons are easy to understand. People are willing to take on the risk of owning hard currency (gold, dollars, euros) if they believe that their nominal currency has greater risk. For example, if a government is spending recklessly, there is serious risk of inflation. Or, if the government has forced interest rates to be too low (well below inflation), then people want to hedge against that too.
By forbidding the ownership of hard currency, the government forces individuals to use the local currency. They must save in this currency, which drives down interest rates and provides cheap capital to their government. And it prevents (for a short time) exchange rates from significantly changing, because it effectively limits the supply of the local currency and reduces demand for hard currency.
EDIT: I forgot to mention the other reason governments do this - it's a great way to force the people to bear the burden of paying down national debt. If the country has significant debt, then the bureaucratic elite have a huge incentive to pursue a policy of inflation, so that the debt becomes less burdensome over time. This well written article from The Economist explains how the west used this technique in the post-ww2 era: http://www.economist.com/node/18834259?story_id=18834259
Unless they default, aren't the people going to have to pay down the national debt one way or another? The only real question is what mechanism to use, and which part of the population pays how much, since there are different winners or losers depending on what method you pursue (e.g. inflating it away, vs. paying it out of tax revenue).
Also what is your criteria for a hard currency vs a soft currency? It seems weird to group the US Dollar and Euro with gold and put the Argentine Peso in a separate group.
I was in Argentina the last election, I saw buses of poor people that were given bocadillos and $10 with instructions of who they should vote.
Argentina is going downhill. I know, I have family there.
A few months ago, they deployed cash-sniffing dogs in airports to prevent people from bringing large amounts of money out of the country. Yes, cash-sniffing dogs. They have a tax evasion rate of around 40%, and they routinely lie about economic statistics and go after watchdog groups that try to publish the real numbers.
I'm not sure how long that can last as a national economic policy.
Sources: http://www.globalpost.com/dispatches/globalpost-blogs/que-pa... http://www.economist.com/node/21548242
The problem with this ban is that there are really no ways to save money here, unless you have a significant amount of capital to buy a house or apartment. What are we salaried workers supposed to do with the percentage of our monthly income that we can save? The only alternative seems the black market, or spending everything in things you might need in the next few months but with no real resale value.
With a 25% inflation rate, saving in pesos equals losing money. What can we do?
[1] http://cs702.wordpress.com/2011/05/29/on-the-potential-adopt...
Stuff like this makes me glad that I left the country.
That's not true -- they're all floating down relative to actual goods and services.
Coordinated devaluation prevents massive capital flight from country to country, but only by making things suck equally everywhere.
However, this is should not be in HN. This kind of politics articles just brings undesired controversy.
Isn't it obvious?
This is a misguided attempt to trap people into their own crappy currency. The US currency isn't any better fundamentally but as of now we don't force citizens to hold dollars for savings.
You neither can import any electronics (or anything at all, except you also export for an equivalent amount). So you're stuck with what the government held companies provide.
Don't even think of buying a Tablet, Phone or whatever, you just can't.
Plus, they want us to buy the shitty laptops/netbooks that are manufactured here in Argentina, like Bangho for example, I think we also produce Lenovo, but I like them.
Not to mention we also have restrictions importing books... yes, books!
"They investigated your finances if you bought a big screen TV for the world cup or send your kids to a private school. In a way they “nationalized” and ruined private health care by including every crappy social medical plan into private health care services that used to be of acceptable quality. They banned the purchase of foreign currency, pretty much froze importations even taking a Fahrenheit 451 twist when they banned the importation of books, like a poor taste Bradburian joke.
No one saw this coming? Really? Hey, those guys that said Argentina was great for expats and that expropriation wasn’t a risk, I suppose they crawled back under a rock in Salta or somewhere."
Is Spain in such a terrible state that Argentina looks better? Any thoughts?
Unless you have weird ties to Argentina like this, it seems irrational to move there.
I have a friend that is from Argentina and says "And you call this "crysis"?" referring to Spain, where he lives.
In Spain things are not that bad, yet. Spain is over indebted, so is USA.
I plan to move maybe... not sure where, things can change in some years.
However, foreign currency-denominated accounts are subject to yearly gain/loss recognition as the value of the foreign currency changes compared to the dollar. This could potentially trigger income taxes on the unrealized gain, effectively (and usually) reducing or eliminating any interest earned. It's also a PITA for banks to deal with the compliance paperwork.
Ultra high inflation, here we go!
While most of the world struggled with the 2008 economic crisis - and Europe still struggles with it - Argentina shrugged it off.
Imagine if another longer lasting crisis occurs within the US hegemonic sphere. Countries like Argentina, which have one foot outside that sphere, will be able to survive and perhaps even lead growth elsewhere.
Life times of economic crises in Argentina have taught Argentines to depend on no one but themselves, which means protectionism sometimes.
http://www.cavallo.com.ar/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Greece-...
> Off-Topic: Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon. it's probably off-topic.
Political articles really should not be here: it's a poisonous topic that, on a site like this, usually just rehashes the same old things, which makes them not particularly 'gratifying of one's intellectual curiosity'.
This article isn't really obscure, it appeared on Bloomberg.com, and the Argentinean government fooling around with foreign exchange, banks, and statistics is not really news either.
An example of an article that I think would be more in the spirit of hacker news might be something about options trading evolving between medieval Florence and Flanders, or something like that...
I guess what I'm trying to say is that the link may seem off-topic to you, but it's highly relevant to me. And there's nothing wrong with any of that. And of course, just because an article shows up here doesn't mean you have to read it :)
I'm not arguing against this article, nor am I arguing that all articles on the front page should appeal to me. However, I am arguing that your final line of reasoning does not hold in general.
Regarding your point, I think we're dangerously veering into platitudes. Of course I agree that a front page with "good" variety is better than a page with "repetitive" articles. And of course I agree that "too much conformity" is a bad thing. But I was originally countering the commonly spoken notion "If you don't like it, don't read it!" Because of the gain-for-one-is-loss-for-another nature of the front page, exactly what appears on the front page drives the community. If too many off-topic posts become the norm, HN will become a general interest site, and lose the community that makes it so valuable.
edit: There is zero reason to downvote mikeash. I tried to correct with an upvote of my own, but apparently at least two HN readers are mistaken.
And your "moral and philosophical" discussions are exactly the sort of thing that turns into flame wars. I'm 100% sure there are people on HN who think, for instance, that taxes are immoral. Others are for high taxes, especially on the wealthy. Do we really need to get into that? Do you think anyone will emerge with their point of view radically shifted?
Right now, people and small businesses are being starved of capital, because the folks with capital have no incentive to spend it.
Question: Do you think that Microsoft would make a business decision to park nearly $60,000,000,000 in cash if there were a 6% inflation rate?
Note that when Microsoft "parks" cash it's going into government bonds, commercial paper, and bank deposits, not a vault of cash.
How would higher inflation help savers earn more money? Seems like higher inflation would hurt savers, not help them.
We've been living with nearly 5 years of historically low rates of interest and inflation due to fiscal stimulus measures. The nasty side effect of that is that it is nearly risk-free for people with surplus capital to hold onto that capital.
Generally speaking, high inflation is bad for savers. But virtually no inflation is also bad for savers, as you get no return investment without incurring significant risk.
"safe investments" don't outpace inflation.
The only meaningful ROI accounts for inflation.
So even though Swiss consumers may not be seeing nominal price inflation, they are most definitely paying higher prices than they would have otherwise been paying if the SNB really maintained a hard currency.