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Comment by nightowl_games | Hacker News Reader

> Canada

Trudeau has been PM since 2015 and the last election was in 2021. Sure, it looks like he's gonna lose the next one, but Canada hasn't had a oppositional landslide election.

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The next election looks so bad for him that there is a chance the Bloc Quebecois could be the official opposition. That party has no candidate outside of quebec.

Wouldn't be the first time though. I'd old timers remember Bouchard.

Granted, the last time the Bloc was Her Majesty's loyal opposition, the incumbent party collapsed, never recovered, and was swallowed by its rival.

The early warning signs are quite stark -- the BC liberal party (despite having no affiliation with the national liberals) effectively disbanded because of how awful the branding is at this point, and the most left leaning province in the country almost swung conservative. (I'm from BC)

Its hard to imagine the upcoming election will not be a landslide in the next few months, but it is true that there has not yet been an official victory yet.

When's the last time Trudeau won a plurality of votes?

Canada's electoral system is extremely non-linear. The US' electoral college is far far more linear wrt popular vote than parliamentary elections, generally, and Canada's in particular.

> When's the last time Trudeau won a plurality of votes?

For the curious, 2015, which was 9 years and 3 elections ago. And he got less than 40% of the vote.

(https://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/1867-present.html)

There were a couple byelections within the last few months in historically stronghold ridings for the Liberal party that have not flipped in decades. One in Toronto which went to the Conservatives and one in Montreal which went to the Bloc Québécois. It's almost a certainty that the Liberals will not form a government next election, and polling suggests that they are trending below the seat count needed to be the official opposition.

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