Nate Silver has recently written about the clear problems in polling, and in particular the herd-like way they were reporting implausible numbers:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-more-herding-in-swing-st...
Nate Silver has recently written about the clear problems in polling, and in particular the herd-like way they were reporting implausible numbers:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-more-herding-in-swing-st...
the most likely result predicted by 538 was 312 for trump [0]
the issue with the model was the 2nd most likely result was 319 for harris.
they thought the odds of a recount being decisive was around 10%.
That hardly seems evidence of "predicting a split election". which prediction are you thinking of?
[0] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
I don't know what Nate Silver was predicting. Was he predicting a near-split election or the situation where "someone is decently likely to win decisively, but we don't know who"?
Who was? A 50% chance to win does not imply that the vote count will be close.
Also: statistical uncertainty is a feature not a bug. A lot of the idea behind statistics is the ability to quantify the certainty of the point estimate. As another commenter put it: a statistically sound "idk" is a better result than a confidently incorrect estimate, from a statistical standpoint.
The data he has to back up his "too close results to be true random polls" is fantastic.