Nvidia (NVDA) to Replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average | Hacker News Reader

Nvidia (NVDA) to Replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average

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58 pointsLopRabbit28 comments

dupe: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42022282

Is it fair to assume that Nvidia actually has some legs to stand on even after this AI pop and as possible real competitors come to market? Are there real competitors to Nvidia?

Maybe, maybe not - but are they on more solid footing than Intel? Undoubtedly.

AMD, Groq in the future, TMSC?

Edit: I will add Apple.

Groq has already been around for 8 years, and they have just over one ten-thousandth the revenue of Nvidia. They're also hemorrhaging money, their annual spend is 30x their revenue. Probably they'll get acquired into someone else in a few years. *Especially* since we're discussing the scenario of the AI bubble popping, Groq would implode.

The other two, sure.

Already 8 years and being non profitable is forgivable for a hardware startup creating something new, especially a new silicon.

Depends why they are losing money. But losing money alone is not bad. This ain't an ice cream truck.

Agree groq implodes if demand for intellegent automation tanks (i.e. bubble burst), or competitors disrupt the disruptor. Another Z is all you need paper means my old laptop is running models fast or something means groq is not something you need.

They can probably pivot.

BTW OpenAI is 9 years old and they are a SaaS/PaaS running on Azure.

> Another Z is all you need paper means my old laptop is running models fast or something means groq is not something you need.

I’m having trouble parsing that sentence. Is it missing some punctuation?

They're referencing papers like "Attention is all you need", where such papers have usually made AI models significantly faster/better. Better/faster models means great models running well on old hardware, obviating the need for specialized hardware.

More punctuation would look like:

> Another "Z is all you need" paper means my old laptop is running models fast or something, [therefore] means groq is not something you need.

AMD is way behind. But one kind of competition that's going to more important in a year or two is that the huge companies (Meta, Google, Amazon) are working on their own AI chips, designed to run their workloads at lower cost (time and power) than they'd get from Nvidia. So data centers might wind up full of non-Nvidia chips, and Amazon may make them available to their customers. But they will probably be less flexible.

Here's what Meta says they are doing: https://ai.meta.com/blog/next-generation-meta-training-infer...

Is AMD behind hyperscaler in-house efforts? Outside of Google I don't think so.

In many cases they are doing their own designs (done by engineers they hired away from the various electronics companies) and having either TSMC or Intel fab the chips for them. They can design specifically for their workloads to get better price/performance than they can buy from AMD or Nvidia.

It will not be unprofitable company, but I think key understanding is that current profits and revenue levels are unlikely to hold to infinity. So there is very little risk of bankruptcy.

There's a reason, I guess, the common sense advice is to invest your money in a nonmanaged S&P index fund. And not a DJIA one... this just means the DJIA goes up for a while and when the AI bubble bursts so does the DJIA

I am surprised people are so quick to write Intel off. Not yet. Wait one year. Gelsinger said he bet the company on 18A. If PNL fizzles and there are no foundry customers this time next year then Intel is done but until then?

All of this pumped by AI. I’ll be selling the nvda puts all the way down

Selling puts when the stock goes down means you would lose money...

Assuming you are selling to open the position and you don't already own the puts of course

Yeah lol, as a rule anyone who makes comments like this knows nothing about finance and is just cosplaying as a trader. The real traders are content to be making money and don't feel they have to brag about it on internet forums.

Real traders are 95% either losing money or pretending to make money to sell you courses on how to trade

Well this is a watershed moment.

This is more like a holy fuck moment.

Will nVidia turn around and buy Intel, in spite, after Intel did not renew its nForce chipset license?

This is more like a nothingburger moment. No one cares about the DJIA, it's a total joke in the finance world.

That's not to say that Intel is doing well, it's just that DJIA changes are irrelevant.

More like a knee jerk reaction IMO. Intel is having a bad time, but they're not dead yet, and may well be a better, more reliable long term market indicator.

All this means is that the Dow is currently chasing hype.

JMHO (not an expert investor, this is not advice, ...)

IMO a “bad time” is a couple bad quarters or even a bad year.

Intel has had something closer to a bad decade. This doesn’t feel too reactionary.

Doing poorly does not make them a bad indicator of overall industry health.

And they've had bad stretches before. I myself am wondering, but I wouldn't count them out just yet.

> Doing poorly does not make them a bad indicator of overall industry health.

AMD, Nvidia, Apple, Qualcomm — everyone else seems to be doing much better than Intel. Intel seems like an outlier in the industry.

They might be an outlier in terms of current profit metrics, but they are still the market leader in the CPU space, and not by a small margin.

I would consider it foolish to disregard the metrics of a company that holds in the neighborhood of 75% of market share in a critical tech market.

Comparing Nvidia to Intel is more difficult because Intel is comparatively a bit player in the GPU market. Adding NVDA is not the issue; it's an important market segment, and they're the leader. Deleting Intel is an issue. CPUs are and will remain a vital component of the tech market, and thus, so will Intel for the foreseeable future.

So long story short, this makes the Dow start looking like a better indicator of hype than overall market health IMHO. I don't want my market index to cherry-pick only the ones that are rising.

You are certainly free to disagree ;) Again, I'm hardly an expert investor.

I’m not an expert either! And you’re right, Intel is still a very large and important player.

You’re calling it shifting to be an indicator of hype, but maybe it’s more an indicator of where things are going? Intel has strong incumbency on their side for sure, but their business just looks so weak going forward and the decline has been so pronounced now for so long.

I wouldn’t count them out either though. And honestly I’m rooting for them. They’re an iconic brand and I hope they can recover.

Absolutely. Get ready to watch the DJIA crash once people figure out LLMs can’t actually reason and never will. This will be a boon for the credibility of the S&P 500.

A plain LLM by itself can't reason, but that doesn't rule out tools make made from an LLM plus other specialized modules. For example I believe the "write a python program to..." approach was showing promise for math-y stuff last I heard.

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