i think there have been many observations and studies reporting emergent intelligence
And we don’t have a good measure for emergent intelligence, so I would take any “study” with a large grain of salt. I’ve read one or two arxiv papers suggesting reasoning capabilities, but they were not reproduced and I personally couldn’t reproduce their results.
We don't know how reasoning emerges in humans. I'm pretty sure the multi-model-ness helps, but it is not needed for reasoning, because they imply other forms of input, hence just more (be it somewhat different) input. A blind person can still form an 'image'.
In the same sense, we don't know how reasoning emerges in LLMs. For me the evidence lays in the results, rather than in how it works. For me the results are enough of an evidence.
The argument is that next token prediction does not imply an upper bound on intelligence, because an improved next token prediction will pull increasingly more of the world that is described in the training data into itself.
> The argument is that next token prediction does not imply an upper bound on intelligence, because an improved next token prediction will pull increasingly more of the world that is described in the training data into itself.
Well said! There's a philosophical rift appearing in the tech community over this issue semi-neatly dividing people between naysayers, "disbelievers" and believers over this very issue.