Musk, Bezos need just 90 minutes to match your lifetime carbon footprint: Oxfam
theregister.com
theregister.com
The person buying them gets to feel superior, someone else gets a lot of money for effectively doing nothing, and the the environment suffers just the same.
Plus as the cost of emitting carbon rises, people will search for alternatives.
I don't think it's necessarily a bad idea, but if we want to go for the transition we need to do so wholeheartedly, not punishing poorer people with tariffs that keep EV's unaffordable because it helps some lobby groups.
> ... as the cost of emitting carbon rises, people will search for alternatives ...
The only alternative for most poorer individuals is the power grid and while it is more convenient it is nowhere close to carbon based fuels in price. So it is used for small things, and for heating carbon based fuels are used.
And, perhaps ironically, the grid is becoming on a per-person/per-customer basis more expensive because the people who traditionally pay the bill, large, industrial users, have by far the easiest time and the most to gain switching to solar.
When someone else poorer gets a slice of that wealth, they'll inevitably consume a much higher fraction of it.
Another answer is that you just don't include offsets in the tax at all, at least at the start. You tax the extraction or importation of burnable carbon. So gas wells pay $X per ton of carbon they ship, oil refineries pay $Y per ton of carbon they pull off a tanker, etc... Then when someone comes by with a specific technology for capture/sequestration/offset/whatever, you make a regulatory decision that such a process is legal and pay them back $Z per ton of carbon verifiably sequestered.
Source: https://8billiontrees.com/carbon-offsets-credits/carbon-ecol...
For example the "safe and effective" consensus we saw recently, that turned out to be total junk-science. And we have not yet faced the terrible consequences of that junk-science: on a societal level (MSM, most govt agencies) we just act as if it did not happen.
I don't understand this example, what are you referring to? And what was the total junk-science?
I think we are heading towards a future rather similar to a SyFy called Incorporated.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incorporated_(TV_series)
The world will be much warmer than now even if we stopped all CO2 emissions this second. I think that series was rather close to what we are looking at.
It doesn't make sense to tally someone's investments as them polluting. If they sell half their investment, the pollution emissions on earth don't go down.
Oxfam just lost its credibility with me.
No but your income depends on pollution happening and you investing in X company enables that company to raise cash to keep on polluting or in worst case start polluting.
If all social media companies decided to shut down tomorrow because it's harmful to society, how many people on HN would be willing to launch their own to cash in? Probably almost everyone.
Dont worry, Oxfam doesnt need your simplistic views and support based on your own simplistic analysis.
Of course it makes. As long as someone keeps investing on things regardless of how much they pollute, the pollution will keep happening. People look for billionaires and see how they do invest. They think it is okay and good to invest for same things too, in order to make money. And pollution never ends.
Hasn't Musk done exactly what you are demanding of him with Tesla and what ever his solar company is?
C'mon, you know what I mean. I bet there are plenty of non-polluting investments that they hold too. They're not suddenly going to become bankrupt because of investing in renewable energy. Maybe they'd be able to afford one less yacht or private jet, but I presume that, like me, you don't really care about that either.
> Hasn't Musk done exactly what you are demanding of him with Tesla and what ever his solar company is?
To some extent, yes. Much as I despise Musk as a person he's done a huge amount for electric cars at least. I haven't heard anything about the solar company recently, and the last I heard it was languishing very far down in the list of Tesla priorities. Tesla home batteries seem to be pretty ubiquitous though.
But we're also talking about personal emissions here, and he hasn't invented an electric jet yet. The point is that we need to radically reduce emissions, and me personally insulating my house doesn't make a blind bit of difference if those at the top of the pile don't make significant changes themselves.
I don't see Bill Gates, Al Gore or Taylor Swift being called out. IIRC the last time there a summit happened in Egypt someone put together a list of all those who flew in private jets and the reaction was to start masking the passenger manifests for "security".
This is the odd one here.
Sure, shipping/transportation as it is is highly polluting. But it's not something from which we as a civilization can opt out.
We have to figure out how to reduce the impact, but having less of shipping is a non starter.
[1] 40% according to https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbarnard/2023/12/05/how-w...
https://ourworldindata.org/ghg-emissions-by-sector
It's a few years old, but it shows that ALL of emissions from ALL air transport is less than 2%.
From the article:
> Musk's [...] jets responsible for 5,497 tons of CO2 over the course of a year
> Bezos' two-jet fleet emitting around 2,908 tons of carbon.
World wide CO2 emissions are measured in BILLIONS of tons (35-40 BILLION). I don't care if the mob breaks out the pitchforks and guillotines for the billionaires. They honestly don't seem like very nice people. However, nobody should believe that 8500 tons is a significant chunk of 35 BILLION.
Look at that chart again. Get rid of all air travel, all road transport (trucking and personal), all residential and commercial energy use (air conditioning and heating), and all all iron and steel, and you've only reduced global emissions by about 40%. So we're basically back to the medieval lifestyle, and we're probably going to have a huge increase in burning firewood to stay warm, which reduces the progress.
Nonsense like this article isn't useful. People like to think every little bit counts, but it doesn't. People like to think if we just slaughtered the billionaires it'll all get better, but it won't.
Thinking we should just leave billionaies alone and let them do as they wish is nonsense.
The actual savings from Bezos' and Musk's planes is something like 0.000_024 percent. So if it takes 50 years until it gets bad, it'll take about 50 years and 8 minutes after you take away their planes.
Whether something counts should be done with math, not feel good sentiment or pandering to people's envy.
Now look at the chart and focus on energy PRODUCTION. If someone could make enough emission-free electricity, you can get rid of nearly all of it. Except for airplanes, because batteries are heavy - but thankfully that's only 2% and doesn't matter very much.
No matter how you slice it or whatever sentimental argument you throw at it, Bezos, Musk, and Taylor's jets don't add up to anything that matters.
If your argument is "everything but airplanes", it would be interesting to know why you think they are so important?
As for energy consumption reduction leading us back to stone age: it's about cutting the excess to keep what matters, no one arguing for it will pretend for a second that the excess stops at stone age level. Thankfully it doesn't even go as far as 250 years ago, when our world was still entirely renewable.
If commuting for 50km for work is what matters, cutting the excess means replacing many SUVs by an (electric) bus or a train plus an e-bike. And maybe create jobs or housing closer. Not "not working" or "dying".
Eliminate air travel: 1.9%
Eliminate all trucking and cars: 11.9%
Eliminate residential heating/cooling: 10.9%
Eliminate commercial energy use: 6.6%
And so on...
If you focus on energy consumption, you can't solve that WITHOUT a thousand cuts, and that's totally unrealistic. And rage bait articles appealing to people's dislike and envy of billionaire airplanes for 0.000024% benefit don't help. Anyone who focuses on that is not using an engineering mindset and is distracted from the goal.Ok, so now look at it from the energy production side. Get real serious about nuclear or wind/solar/batteries (and a few agricultural changes), and you could actually make a difference.
This is usually the point where someone says nuclear plants are always over cost and take too long to build, but the US military has hundreds of reactors running safely, and they were constructed for some government definition of "on time". If we were serious about achieving the goal in the US, we'd be pushing for a new branch of the military to manage public reactors or something, or we'd get real serious about batteries.
Btw, I fucking hate flying. The experience is miserable, and I can deal with ground/water shipping for anything I buy. It wouldn't change my life one bit if we grounded all the airplanes. But I'm not dumb enough to think that would change anything about the predictions for the climate, and flying has benefits to other people. The point was that you can't really solve air flight with batteries or nuclear power, so thankfully 2% isn't much.
Look at the chart. Cement, Iron, and Steel are responsible 10.2% of global emissions. Without those, it's almost the definition of stone age. I'm not sure about "renewable", but the world was not zero emissions 250 years ago. There were just fewer people.
Only if you simplify everything beyond all measures. But the climate is a little more complicated than "we can only emit X more tons before things get bad".
As an example, there are feedback loops that accelerate climate change once hit. Over time this amplifies the effect of any reduction we achieve now.
Also, the more time we have to "find a solution" as many people bet on, the more of our current biosphere will survive. Aside from any moral obligations, this is obviously in our best interest as it increases the chances of more humans surviving.
Even if you argue against these points, there are many others - none included in the math you've done.
Do you really think that saving .000024% by getting rid of Bezos and Musk's jets is going to delay that complicated feedback loop and buy someone the time to save the world? Do you really think 2% is going to delay anything significantly?
Because I don't see how you can "it's complicated" your way into that belief.
> Do you really think 2% is going to delay anything significantly?
As soon as you define "significantly", I'll gladly answer your question.
If your answer isn't measured in years, possibly with a confidence interval, we'll both know this is more of you trying to "win" an internet discussion by arguing in bad faith.
We're currently experiencing a mass extinction only rivaled by previous incredibly catastrophic events. Even a single year could mean whole ecosystems collapsing or not collapsing. If we find a technological solution for climate change in 2050, but critical species went extinct due to overheating in 2049, the 2% air emissions will be the difference between billions of people dying or not dying.
I don't know how to quantify these risks, and apparently neither do you. But that doesn't mean we can ignore them when we consider the best course of action. It only means: your model is insufficient and simplifies things beyond reason.
The reason for pointing out insignificant things is so that people aren't distracted from the significant things.
"It's complicated." So go ahead and keep everyone worrying about Taylor Swift's jet. Create a carbon tax for billionaires. Offset the emissions, or whatever. But you aren't looking at things that could actually make a difference.
> Obviously I don't believe that this scenario will literally happen
So you don't think that's really plausible, and I don't think it was a good faith argument.
I'm going to say it again, because I don't think you got it: The reason for criticizing when people focus on insignificant things is because it's a distraction from focusing on things that could actually make a difference.
Unless you believe that humanity will 100% die off or 100% fix climate change tomorrow, the chance of a 2% reduction in CO2 output having no measurable effect on our future is close to 0%, yet your modelling puts it at close to 100%.
I'm going to say it again, because I don't think you got it: you're deliberately misrepresenting the situation and simplifying things beyond reason. The correct response to an inability to model something isn't to just leave it out. You specifically pointed out that we should make these decisions based on math, but your math is incomplete enough to be useless.
Btw, since you're only really interested in winning debates, you probably shouldn't open the window for other people to define the terms. When you asked me for a definition of "significant", it puts you in a bad spot no matter whether you do or don't respond to it. Of course you didn't respond with a number of years, because that would support my point. I gave a really concrete scenario, and you refused to answer, and it was obvious to both of us why you didn't answer.
Best of luck in your future internet battles. Everyone needs a hobby.
These are real questions. I find it hard to get a comprehensive and unbiased analysis.
I think it makes more sense to solve pollution with systemic solutions rather than play a blame game. Just tax private jet usage and use that money to decarbonize or something.
Both have massive lobbies and large government contracts making them large interests. Both also pollute heavily
They started around 12 years ago with reports about income inequality (Chapter 1, 2012 report) and why it was a problem despite poverty rates plummeting. Even though that was also wrong as shown by Milanovic’s Elephant (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Elephant_Curve) or the Income Gini index after the year 2010.
Obviously the couldn’t keep the claim and they shifted towards a new claim: wealth inequality vs income inequality. So in 2016 they shifter their claim in their report.
But in 2022 wealth inequality started to shrink, including the reduction of global millionaires as published by Credit Suisse/UBS (Oxfam source) so they published a completely dishonest report, the one I mention in my first paragraph.
Oxfam has clearly anti-capitalist goals and drives them by publishing extremely sensationalistic and completely manipulated reports to shape public opinion.
That’s why I would advise anyone to read the report directly and to be extremely cautious with their claims.
I won’t comment on this report yet as I need time to do a proper reading, but never take Oxfam headlines as real data, they are always extremely biased.
I wonder if we could achieve the same net effect by allowing the carbon tax to be either negative or positive, paying people to produce net-negative CO2, so that it's possible to compete on who can do so most efficiently.
Why not just cut out the middle man and let us all keep what little income we have vs yet another tax. Everyone gets taxed right? Or do you mean tax for thee none for me?
Yes, but your personal tax of $0.03 would be deducted from your $17 redistribution of Jeff Bezos's tax, so don't worry about getting yours, you'll still come out ahead.
If one’s intention is to benefit them, you can’t do it by just reducing their [zero] taxation.
Musk and Bezos can build solar panels on their huge properties and offset their other CO2 production (the way we do with "coupons" now).
But what will little below-average bobby in some cold rural area do, if the only way to heat his small rural cottage is a wood-burning stove? Pay more tax to people like musk, who now generate negative CO2?
Look at electric heating for example, a resistive heater is ~15eur over here, while a heat pump is around 1k eur with installation. If you want to be even more efficient, you build better insulation and a ventilation system with a heat exchanger. But hey, if you're poor, living in an overly expesive rental apartment, you don't have that money, but you do have 15eur for a space heater and suddenly a higher tax bill.
I got our roof, windows, doors, water heater and AC done via an no-interest state program of this nature.
Some people can barely afford heating already, and we're making it even more expensive for them, while people like musk/bezos can just avoid it, or even earn money on co2 coupons.
If you suggeted banning private jets, bot for the rich and the poor, then sure, that would affect bezos a lot more than bobby below-average over here, but not this.
I wish I had more optimism here. For a brief window some years ago my anti-capitalist impulses were put in check and I thought maybe neo-Keynesian liberals could lead us out of this, as they promised, and that gov't policy combined with the natural market forces emerging from the renewable energy sector would gradually taper emissions off.
Unfortunately, nope.
The sad irony is that a carbon tax is the most modest, conservative-friendly, marketish-based policy. But the right just can't resist turning opposition to it into a trampoline into power. And the fossil fuel industry is going to go down alright, but it's planning on taking us all with it.
We have not managed to decouple from fossils: heavy industry, shipping, airports, ... There could be a scenario where the energy source is not fossils: but so far it's not in sight.