It's absolutely a shift in reality. In the past, flunking out of school and working at your local McDonalds wasn't a great life, but you could afford a tiny shithole apartment and buy your weekly beer and hang out with the other people who didn't finish high school and live a meager life and shoot the shit.
Now, housing is way more expensive. Basic things are more expensive. McDonalds hires less and pays less relatively to what they used to.
I just went up state and visited a couple friends who failed to go to college or do anything with their lives. Nearly everyone is gone from the home town, because all the jobs are in cities. Small rural towns are basically empty of younger people. The few jobs that do exist are AWFUL, give you less agency than in the past, have zero upwards mobility because every single company is either a tiny business where the owner is the manager or a giant megacorp that pushes management down from Corporate, and STILL pay less than that burger flipping job did. They are soulless. They have almost no friends, almost no options, almost no money, and the place they live is literally dying around them, because it has been for 40 years.
More women go to college, so more of the people left in tiny rural hometowns are lonely men, who cannot find a partner, because there literally aren't many available.
They look at the next 40 years of their lives and see nothing. There's nothing to hope for. There's nothing to attempt to improve for. There's no chance that someone will offer them a good job, because everything is owned by like six companies.
>As it stands today, I'd be tempted to give my kid 150k to start a plumbing business instead of paying for college.
Guess what, being in the position to give your kid $150k period means they are already near the top of the food chain. The vast majority of Americans growing up can't even come close to that. Having a parent or parents that have that kind of expendable income is already chart topping levels of "Has a support structure they can rely on". None of the kids suffering from "no options" syndrome had that.