I believe luck with timing is the biggest determination.
Vonnegut comes to mind in literature. In one of his novels, he even grades his other works A-F based on how good he thinks they were. His grades seem remarkably accurate, too, given my subjectivity as a reader, and his bias as the author.
Seems like the passage of time has a role in accentuating the genius of artists
That makes sense, I think genius is time evolving process.
One pattern, I have seen in high performers, is that they are competing only with themselves, using introspective feedback to continuously improve in an ego free way.
2) You're really looking at this in terms of modern music industry, which is nonsense, Chopin created music for his friends too and would send them the scripts.
The etudes are timeless
If you do mean something like the 4th Prelude in E Minor for instance, should it be prefaced with a trigger warning that ‘you're about to hear music that is - effusively sad or full of self-pity; extremely sentimental or 'tearful; easily moved to tears; exciting to tears; excessively sentimental; weak and silly? (American Heritage Dictionary definition of maudlin).
Written much later, would you regard Rachmaninov's Vocalise (1915) or Barber's Adagio (1936) as 'maudlin' not to mention a vast number of other compositions that explore the kind of intensity of feeling that is expressed in the 4th Chopin Prelude. Given that the pianist Alfred Brendel considers ‘Chopin’s Preludes as the most glorious achievement in piano music after Beethoven and Schubert’ you might wonder why he takes a somewhat view from you. Could you be missing something?