Most weights are released as fp16/bf16 so 2 bytes per weight. So just double the number of parameters = the number of gigabytes of VRAM. Llama 3.1 8B ~= 16GB weights in fp16. At 4bit quantization, it would be half the number of parameters so Llama 3.1 8B ~= 4GB weights.
But this is just weights. The real issue is context and output length: how much data are you feeding in? This is where VRAM can explode, and it's entirely use-case dependent. So for a 128k context model, the range of VRAM usage is huge.
The reality is, if you're not able to quickly estimate the above, you're probably not running local models anyway.