Tesla Q3 2024 Financial Results [pdf]
digitalassets.tesla.com
digitalassets.tesla.com
- cheaper car announcement
- something concrete on robotaxi, not likely
- current model refresh, they are getting old
Numbers:
- Q3 EPS $0.72, Est $0.60
- Q3 Rev $25.18B, Est $35.43B
- so slight top line miss but nice bottom line beat
- Automotive gross margis of 17.1%, Est 14.9%
- I think higher gross margins are becaus peopel are buying their software( FSD and smart summon)
- Second highest quarter for regulatory credit revenue, neat way for the government to subsidize a car manufacturer without subsidizing them
- still behind last years sales numbers
- Cybertruck has reached profitablility
- more than 100,000 powerwalls enrolled as virutal power plants currently
Interesting Notes:
- next gen platform should get about 5.5 miles/kWh, for context Lucid currently has the most efficient drive train around 5 miles/kWh( by lucid's claim)
- supposedly next gen cheaper car in late 2025
- nothing other than lip service to robo taxi
- “We deployed and are training ahead of schedule on a 29k H100 cluster at Gigafactory Texas – where we expect to have 50k H100 capacity by the end of October.”
- note: check which company owns that server farm
- after laying off the supercharger team, that network somehow grew 22% YoY
Two other notes that people might find interesting....
> "According to Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi, Tesla’s core electric-vehicle business is likely worth less than $200 billion, suggesting its market capitalization reflects a value of about $600 billion for other endeavors, such as the robotaxi and the Optimus humanoid robot. "
The DOJ has just informed Elon that paying voters to register may be illegal.
As an Australian I'm really looking forward to getting automation features like Actually Smart Summon outside the US. And hopefully a subscription for it, instead of a one time 5000$ fee that then can't ever be transferred to a future car. You'd have to be dumb to buy it in its current form. Making that more reasonable will be a way they can immediately extract more money out of me. As long as the price is reasonable, and not bonkers which it sadly probably will be.
The other rumour is that they are running test production in Shanghai with the plan to roll-out full production consecutively across Shanghai, Texas, and Berlin. This is unlike the Model 3, which saw a delayed roll-out in the US.
1 - https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-news/updated-2025-tesla-mod...
Nor will you see one for another couple years, minimum.
> - current model refresh, they are getting old
Model 3 just got a refresh a few months ago. Agreed that Model S/X are due, though.
> - supposedly next gen cheaper car in late 2025
Which likely actually means mid 2027.
However the moment Tesla officially announces it, they Osborne themselves in the foot. Hence they're playing it close to the chest until the product is almost ready for sale.
A cheaper car announcement would have a strong Osbourne effect on the 3. I doubt they're going to announce much until it's close to shipping.
Also Tesla is way behind on V4 (high voltage) superchargers. There are only dispensers installed. Zero actual V4 charging cabinets. Which means Cybertruck owners still can't get full speed at Tesla superchargers. If things continue as they are Tesla will let their monopoly on reliable high speed charging slip through their fingers.
Lastly, Musk was very clear there is no next gen affordable car coming other than robotaxi.
> - so slight top line miss but nice bottom line beat
How is this a "slight" revenue miss? I guess one of the figures is wrong?
Literally laughed out loud seeing the phrase "ahead of schedule" in a section about FSD
What's about to happen?
I think you can pick one up used for 25k or so. If you buy used from Tesla it sometimes comes with FSD for a super reduced rate (at least they used to). Check it out.
The worry is that HW3 (only 144 TOPS) will not be enough for true self driving. Today they committed to upgrading HW3 cars with FSD for free if they solve self driving with more powerful HW4. Take one for a test drive they're dope.