I understand engineering is complicated but this honestly seems like the easiest part of the problem to solve.
It's more likely that SpaceX determined they didn't need super tight tolerances and called it a day.
Yup! This is my conclusion in the article - the landing box for the Super Heavy booster is 5x13x18 meters on each side, with 5-15 degrees of angular tolerance in each of the vehicle axes. So the margins are big enough that you don't need millimeter level precision for the rocket position.
This is the part I question though. Seems like an org as well motivated as SpaceX could easily solve that if it was necessary.
The meatball Fresnel lens is canted slightly side-to-side, and only places the hook in the right spot at a given angle of attack. Which is a design compromise necessitated by having to allow multiple types of aircraft with multiple hook-to-eye distances to land on the same aircraft carrier while using a visual input in one location (the cockpit) to properly place a device in another location (the hook point) with high precision.
Source: I've done it.
So just as it is not "very easy" to trap on board the boat with "just" a light signal, I would assume landing a building-sized booster has a similar if not bigger list of potential "gotchas."
There have been many airplane crashes because of sudden unexpected wind changes while landing.
The actual question is literal: Can SpaceX land a rocket with sub 1 cm (1/2 cm) accuracy? GNSS RTK can get you down to a couple of centimeters, but getting more granular resolution than this isn't reliably possible with current professional grade technologies.
I'm personally unsure if the military has greater resolution than what's possible with RTK or w.r.t. military use GPS, but I would not be surprised if they did. If that's the case, NASA would most likely have access to it, I would assume. But the article specifically calls this out saying that it's not accurate enough to surpass the resolution of using RTK.
What's really cool about these questions is that the same problem space is applicable to self-driving cars and SLAM, if you're into that sort of thing. Lane detection, etc.
But in realtime? (single-digit second latency, at least)
Edit: I think I misunderstood the comment. Yes, you can use the absolute methods for rough guidance and then use relative positioning for the final approach. The article has a line about why the author doesn’t think that’s likely though.