Let's not assume a lot right now. OpenAI and other companies are torching through cash like drunken socialist sailors. Will AI be here as a Big Data 2.0 B2B technology? Most likely, but a viable model where students and laypeople have access to it? To be seen.
We all mooched off of dumb VC money at one point or another. I acquired a few expensive watches at Fab dot com at 80% off when they were giving money away, eh.
You can run GPT-4-equivalent models locally. Even if all software and hardware advancements immediately halt, models at the current level will remain available.
2040? 2050?
In isolation, I don't think a model necessarily becomes less useful over time. It'll still be as good at summarizing articles, translating text, correcting grammar, etc. for you as it is today.
If things do continue to advance and new models are released, which I think is likely, the old ones become less useful by comparison and in situations where there's competition. But then, through hardware/algorithmic improvements, better models also become feasible for universities/open-source groups/individuals - so you shouldn't be stuck with a 2024 era model.
If done right they would go from VC money with an expected exit to government money that overpays for incompetence because our only way out of deficit spending is through more debt and inflation.
Sorry, English is not my first langage what is this expression ? Why does the sailor as to be socialist ? Google didn't help me with this one.
This is similar to how the AI companies mostly spending VC’s money buying these accelerators from nVidia.