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Comment by nkmskdmfodf | Hacker News Reader

You're ignoring interest. If there is 100T of outstanding debt at 3% annual interest, that's 3T in interest per year. At a certain point it may be impossible to keep the overall interest payments going and the debt graph will collapse like dominoes.

The great recession was also mainly caused by debts within the US economy.

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So country A pays 3% to country b, who pays 3% to country c who pays 3% to country A

What happens when country A can't pay?

Very bad things, or maybe very good things, depends on your perspective, a reset in any case and a restructuring of debt, usually just after a crash.

Which isn’t free either. Consider the interest levels of countries considered unstable vs those considered stable (UK/US compared to Türkiye/Argentina for example). It massively changes what actions the respective governments can take.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_debt_crisis

Everything old is new again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OrhJcqgXrlw

You’re ignoring inflation. At 2.5% inflation, this is a 0.5% real interest rate.

Inflation can only come with an increase in the money supply and the money supply only increases by issuing debt, which carries more interest.

Not true. Inflation is defined as the increase in the cost of goods. This can come about by an increase in money supply, a reduction in demand for the money that exists, a restriction in supply of certain goods or an increase in the demand for enough key goods. I’m not an economist so I’m sure one could come up with more examples.

No, inflation is only because of an increase in the money supply, which is increased by lending in modern economies. Rulers will make false definitions and false measurements in order to try to hide this. Just as Roman emperors would debase the metal in their currency and demand that people treated the money as pure. But the truth is still the truth, no matter the lies.

Actual economists and monetary policy staff disagree with you:

1. HBR: https://hbr.org/2022/12/what-causes-inflation

2. IMF: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Back...

3. Reserve Bank of Australia: https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/causes...

4. The Bank of England: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Cant-Just-Print-More-Money-ebook/dp...

Shall I continue?

The pope says he's appointed by God. So it must be true...

Your sources are as truthful about inflation as asking any general if he's fighting for the good side of a war.

> The pope says he's appointed by God. So it must be true...

Carlos Jobim says he’s the expert on finance and monetary policy so it must be true. He doesn’t need things like evidence, experts, research or data. His word is the truth.

Your sources are organizations that derive all their power from inflating the monetary supply. They have reason to lie always.

I think you need to get off r/Superstonk and return to the real world.

During the era of the Soviet Union, all institutions and all science within their sphere of influence agreed unanimously that socialism was a superior system in all ways measurable. The people believed it. Probably most academics believed it, as well as leaders of institutions. In the highest echelon they were painfully aware of the shortcomings of their system, but it was still inconceivable to admit what was really going on.

In the future you will probably read books and memoirs from international banking leaders, speaking more unfiltered about how they had to keep the truth from the population, just as we today can read the memoirs of previous Soviet leaders admitting their lies and failure.

When you talk about economists as an authority, do you think anybody could get a tenure or a degree unless they believe in inflation as a mysterious force and not man-made? Probably as likely as somebody getting a degree in political science in the USSR without being a socialist.

> In the future you will probably read books and memoirs from international banking leaders, speaking more unfiltered about how they had to keep the truth from the population, just as we today can read the memoirs of previous Soviet leaders admitting their lies and failure.

No, we really won't.

Ok, you are right, let's end this "discussion".

We agree on one thing: this wasn’t a discussion. It was you embarrassing yourself in public.

When people don't want to talk to you anymore, it doesn't always mean that you're right. You should take that advice into real life.

> No, inflation is only because of an increase in the money supply

Japan increasing its money supply but having long stretches of low inflation (and even deflation) for the last ~twenty years:

* https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1680i

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