Ok. I don't think we are talking about different things, and I still think you got it the other way around.
In fuzzy terms (because boolean logic gets crazy with those concepts):
We have success "S", with preconditions "P0, P1, ...", so that S = P0 & P1 & ...
We can map those concepts into their probability, where the probability of success would be "s = p0 * p1 * ...". AFAIK, your rule is that the best place to optimize is the lowest pN.
That would only be true if optimizing for any of those preconditions had similar costs and values. But on business, those things both tend to vary wildly, and the entire thing tends to get dominated by preconditions that you can't control (infinite costs) very quickly once you achieve a minimum of competence.
Also, the formalism doesn't accept changes on the definition of "success". You will get absolutely nowhere in life if you don't constantly change your definition of success, so the formalism is irredeemably wrong by construction.