Doesn't this target exactly your second case? Successful projects in terms of usage and impact that can't be maintained by volunteers alone?
The biggest problem with occasional $15 donations is that they're occasional. Sustainability requires a somewhat stable ARR.
Depends on where you live too - $10k would take care of 5 years for me.
From my experience though, it is better to figure out a way to sell something in addition to the open stuff.