Comment by gabesullice | Hacker News Reader

Comment by gabesullice | Hacker News Reader

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>> If anyone is going to make self driving work, the odds are stacked in Tesla's favor. > > How disconnected from reality are you to make this statement?

I suppose we all live in our own bubbles. I've not been to SF in many years. I've never seen a Waymo on the street. However, I've sat in a Tesla myself and watched it navigate the roads in my hometown. As have many others across the US. And so I feel rather connected with reality in that small, tangible way.

I should have been more precise with my words. By 'make self-driving work', I meant deploy that technology cheaply and widely. But retroactively I understand my clarification appears like I'm moving the goal posts. I alluded to that though: 'They have more data and distribution than any of their competitors.'

>> I feel similarly excited for Tesla when they demonstrate robots with incredible dexterity. > > Did you never hear about Boston dynamics?

I have, and I am also excited for them. I believe you missed my point about being happy for people trying to do difficult things.

> I suppose we all live in our own bubbles.

Maybe. I guess another possibility is some people deliberately ignore evidence that doesn't fit their worldview for reasons that are yet unknown to me.

> I've never seen a Waymo on the street.

Just because you don't see something doesn't mean it doesn't exist. https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/20/waymo-is-now-giving-100000... there are around 100k people using waymo self-driving every week.

> However, I've sat in a Tesla myself and watched it navigate the roads in my hometown.

https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/support/autopilot "Before using Autopilot, read your Owner's Manual for instructions and more safety information. While using Autopilot, it is your responsibility to stay alert, keep your hands on the steering wheel at all times and maintain control of your vehicle. "

This is not self driving.

> By 'make self-driving work', I meant deploy that technology cheaply and widely.

I see only one company deploying self-driving technology and that's not tesla.

I appreciate you sharing articles. Do you feel that we're trying to establish how well I see 'reality' or about Tesla's odds of deploying self-driving cheaply and widely. It feels like the former, but maybe I'm not being charitable enough in my reading of your posts.

Simply sharing the evidence that helped shape your own worldview does not necessarily invalidate mine. The first-hand evidence I shared supported my claim that Tesla has wide distribution, lots of data, and falls somewhere on the spectrum of self-driving (admittedly not fully autonomous).

The evidence you shared shows that Waymo has limited (but increasing) deployment, limited data (only the 3 metro areas), relatively little revenue, and—to its credit—fully autonomous driving capabilities under city-driving circumstances.

Waymo is taking a different development path and I'm rooting for them too.

But I'm still not convinced that the odds are in their favor. Can they build a relatively affordable car and especially their LIDAR system at scale? Will they be able to scale production before Tesla cracks the fully autonomous nut? I personally still think the odds are still in Tesla's favor. Note that I did not ever say: 'Tesla is the only one who can or will make self-driving work'.

> relatively little revenue

100k rides/wk * 4 weeks/mo * 12 months * $50/ride = $24m/year Yet Alphabet is investing $5 billion, hence 'relatively little'

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