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You forgot to mention the fact that retired members can be recalled, that would dramatically factor into the calculations.

As well as the fact that many roles are tied to holding an active clearance, and while some things would be available in those amounts, debt generally is not one of them (a big opportunity cost).

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I think getting recalled as a retiree is about as likely as a regular civilian being drafted though. Both theoretical risks but about equal, for career planning purposes.

We've recalled retirees, most recently in the mid 2000s. There were a lot of them recalled in the gulf war in the 90s.

So a bit more likely than the draft.

I'm technically also subject to the UCMJ for the rest of my life as well.

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