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Comment by kunle | Hacker News Reader

>Elon is awesome, but the founders of NASA contracting companies, intel, car companies, etc didn't reach bill gates levels of wealth

This might be true. But Elon stands to be the first private citizen with a chance to reach the moon or Mars. The chance is (admittedly) slim, but the expected value of being commercially successful at reaching the moon or Mars is exponentially greater than Microsoft.

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I don't think the change is that slim. Elon is the type of person who knows his limits and pushes them. His goals tend to be grand, but, with effort, achievable.

I'd be more surprised if he didn't reach the moon or Mars

What is the expected value of a private party reaching Mars? What are they going to get from it?

The first individuals to reach North America didn't become ultra-rich. But North America did eventually produce unprecedented new wealth.

Zubrin has argued that the colonization of Mars is analogous to North America, and will produce unprecendented wealth.

http://www.nss.org/settlement/mars/zubrin-promise.html

Hate to be a pedant, but the first people who reached North America were massacred by the ones who followed.

> Hate to be a pedant, but the first people who reached North America were massacred by the ones who followed.

No, good point. That one doesn't count as pedantry on your part, but as a d'oh on my part!

Depends on whose logos are on the rocket.

Hard to say. I'm completely speculating but I'm imagining that between the natural resources present there and the possibility of colonizing the planet, there's economic potential. That being said, very difficult to calculate.

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