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Comment by nabla9 | Hacker News Reader

Nvidia’s Blackwell GPUs sold out for next 12 months. This likely means that their profit margins jump again when sales from those chips come in.

Bernstein Research:

MI325X: "Training performance seems 1 year behind Blackwell (on par with H200) while inferencing is only slightly better,"

MI350X: "Even the company's MI350X tease shows raw performance that, while on par with Blackwell on paper, arrives a year later, just in time to compete against Nvidia's next offerings. Hence we do not see even AMD's accelerated road map closing the competitive gap."

https://www.businessinsider.com/amd-latest-gpu-still-lags-be...

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Blackwell being sold out for 12 months sounds like market opportunity for AMD. A chip is better than none.

H100s are available at increasingly affordable prices

Now if only they could be affordable for the average consumer... A man can dream...

When we get to the end of the hype cycle, they will be. The only question is if people will be interested in footing the power bill for any of the ocean of obsolete data center GPUs that companies will be dumping.

Depends on what yield AMD has, they may be able to undercut that if aiming for marketshare rather than revenue.

The marginal cost of each chip is dollars. The 5 digit prices for H100s are just margins to be undercut

After deep diving into building datacenters, I realized that traditional clouds (AWS, Google, azure) add a huge margin to GPUs like H100s.

You can (and I think should), cut it out by going with coreweave, lambda, another or doing it yourself

I’m okay paying that huge margin to first tier cloud for CPUs and disks, which are cheap, but not GPUs

yes, the AI bubble is at least deflating.

that's what's so corrosive about media coverage and stock-market speculation: it corrupts any actual price signals in the market.

there is not an infinite demand for AI training, let alone AI inference.

Nvidia will compete with pricing using H100, H200 against AMDs latest. Basically AMD will get sales, but profit margins are nowhere where Nvidia is.

Operating income to sales (ttm):

  AMD:   4%
  NVDA: 62%

Nvidia and AMD and both competing as customers to TSMC for fab supply they need to order 1-2 years in advance. Apple and Nvidia are served first because they are the best paying customers.

ps. When Intel was the big dog, it almost killed AMD every time they made a x86 chip that was better than Intel. All Intel had to do was to sacrifice little profit margins, removing AMDs profit. This time the demand is so high that it's not going to happen, so AMD can enjoy the piece it has.

How did that strategy work out for Intel?

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