>if your methodology is flawed you aren't gonna get any more significant returns.
The problem with this statement is that predictions made about scaling 5 years ago have held true[1]. We keep adding parameters, adding compute, and the models keep getting more capable.
The flaws of LLM's from 2024 are not what is relevant. Just like the flaws of LLMs from 2021 were not relevant. What is relevant is the rate of change, and the lack of evidence that things won't continue on this steep incline. Especially if you consider that GPT4 was sort of a preview model that motivated big money to make ungodly investments to see how far we can push this. Those models will start to show up over the next 2 years.
If they break the trend and the scaling flops, then I think a lot of air is gonna blow out of the bubble.