That person that has been arrest 15 times before cannot continue to commit crime if he's behind bars. You don't need to "read" the data to come to this conclusion.
People commit crime in large part because they can get away with it.
It's not complicated.
The problem is: why is this person doing this, because there are at least two outcomes:
1. we lock them up, and a part of the problem is gone
2. we lock them up, and someone else steps in to do the same thing
From my perspective, there's ample evidence to suggest that #2 is more likely, and thus even if locking them up has some moral weight behind it, it isn't likely to be a solution to crime in general.
but you know damned well that most of the time it doesn't even go to trial. they're arrested, released, arrested, released, charges pressed, charges dropped; an endless merry-go-round. eventually people stop even reporting crime, why should they bother when the criminals don't get put away?
>From my perspective, there's ample evidence to suggest that #2 is more likely
why? this is like the "lump of labour" fallacy but for crime.
and yes, getting rid of just a few career criminals does disproportionately reduce crime. here's a funny natural experiment from ireland:
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/crime/number-of-burgla...
Then there are the crazy person punching an Asian lady on the subway crimes and these fall squarely in 1
100% of people would commit crimes under the right circumstances. As an extreme example, 100% of us could sustain a life changing head injury that renders us more violent and aggressive than we were before, and that could happen at any moment. The most kind and timid person you know could turn into a monster if they fell down the stairs. You could turn into a monster if you fell down the stairs. The only thing you can do to stop that from happening is to protect your head, it doesn't matter how good or virtuous you are presently.
You can't incarcerate your way out of crime. An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.
Then I should be imprisoned if I present a threat to the public. I don't understand what your point is.
It's an easy trap to fall into for two reasons. It would appear that you and those you know aren't capable of being criminals. This is more comforting than it is true. Everyone, including good people, has the potential to do something horrible; the problem of evil isn't that it's present in a certain group who we can imprison, the problem is that it's present in us all.
The second thing which makes "lock them all up" a seductive proposal is that it's cynical. Cynicism can feel like the opposite of naivete, so it can feel like you're being clear eyed and realistic about the situation and that the people you disagree with (say, prison abolitionists) are naive bleeding hearts. But cynicism is actually just another form of naivete. It's making the same error - blinking while staring into the abyss - with different aesthetics.
But some people are actually more predisposed towards criminality than others. We aren't blank slates.
It's clear that both contribute, which is important because that means there are neither "ur-criminals" nor "not-criminals". While some may, by their nature, be more likely to commit a certain type of crime, none are free from the possibility of doing so under some circumstances.
The problem with this is that's it is extremely easy for people to define "threat" in ways that are convenient to them or that support their prejudices, a la Reefer Madness.
Crime isn't an internship program.
> 73% of the prior offenses are violent and 80% are property related (obviously non-exclusive)
First, correct the assumption that multiple arrests mean you're just living your life "terrorizing" society. Perhaps start with using words that are objective and neutral, not just to fan the flames of passionate rhetoric.