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Comment by dboreham | Hacker News Reader

Sticking to my prediction that lawyers will be first.

That's an interesting example. Lawyers, unlike software developers, as a group go out of their way to ensure that they'll need need and cannot be replaced by others or automation. They push for certain processes to require lawyers. We on the other hand are more eager to automate ourselves than anything else. Maybe that will boost or productivity and make us even more valuable and highly paid or maybe we'll end up unemployed. Fascinating contrast between the professions

Lawyers have a tricky thing called a license to practice law. Software developers have no such protection.

Defending yourself might become a whole lot easier.

Robots are already successfully performing surgeries unassisted, despite a license being required in that field.

I do think barred lawyers will have a role for quite a while, but it is plausible it shrinks to oversight.

What robot is performing what surgery unassisted?

Yeah, plus one on this one, extremely curious to hear as well.

I am aware that remote robot surgeries have been a thing for quite a bit of time, but this is the first time ever I am hearing about unassisted robot surgeries being a thing at all.

A follow-up question: if an unassisted robot surgery goes wrong, who is liable? I know we have a similar dilemma with self-driving cars, but I was under the impression that things are way more regulated and strict in the realm of healthcare.

>Software developers have no such protection.

I wonder if this is at all related to NCEES re-releasing their controls licensure option?

Programmers have been against unions/licenses in software development because we saw it as slowing down our ability to job hop, potentially massively lowering wages, and making a large barrier to entry (which hurts a lot of us who started as kids/teens).

Now there's a chance that this unregulated wild west with a low barrier to entry that's benefited us for so long will come back to bite us in the ass. Kind of spooky to think about.

I would be in favor of some kind of state approved exam/certification to ensure programmers have at least some basic knowledge of computer security and engineering ethics.

> making a large barrier to entry (which hurts a lot of us who started as kids/teens)

I doubt it. In my experience autodidacts are the best programmers I know.

The problem is they would most certainly require a CS degree to apply (if it's left to the bureaucrats), which would be the barrier.

I don't know if that's true. If I was in a WGA/DGA equivalent in my field that offered health care and scale pay that would be great!

I bet if you asked most programmers whether they'd like to have a professional guild similar to the writers who just went on strike, you'd probably be surprised, especially for gaming devs.

This fundamentally misunderstands what lawyers do. You're prediction might be right for paralegals and very junior attorneys. But the lawyers who make real money are not doing rote work. It's lunches, negotiation, politics, and for trial attorneys performance and debate. Social activities, human skills. They'll always be around.

s/lawyers/software-developers/

Agree with that, the startup lawyer I used to use now charges $1,100 / hour which is untenable, would much rather get the basics covered by an AI lawyer.

Live counsel in sensitive situations is definitely in the works, if not already in beta. Get pulled over by cops, or have the authorities asking to enter the premises, bring up your AI counsel and let them talk to the officer, before giving you advice on how to proceed. I can even envision an eventual future where public pressure results in law enforcement being paired with an AI assistant to help refresh their memory on some of the articles of the law.

FWIW I used various LLMs to draft a freelance work contract with good results. Of course I carefully read, thought about every clause, edited, etc. It’s probably not as bulletproof as something a lawyer could produce, but it was definitely a big help.

Nah, the stakes are too high.

There’s a company being fined for exactly this right now. That might be a deterrent.

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