I've used hotwire a bunch, and with minor differences, I think the list of things that htmx is not good for is spot on.
I don't think I'm explaining this well, but maybe this will help someone: Hotwire / htmx are about server-side rendering and making that work more smoothly with the client. eg fewer page navigations, more rapid update of the client, etc. But it's still, through and through, server render with server state.
It works well as long as the server is always the source of truth. The things that it isn't good at, such as drag and drop or complex, multi-state forms on the client side, are basically because you temporarily have a split source of truth: the client is the source of truth with complex state.
That said, my strong suggestion would be to use Hotwire or htmx for 95% of your project even if the main interaction loop is done in react. Your app will still likely have tons of crud around user management, settings / config, onboarding, etc. You can make all that work more nicely.
edit: in case it wasn't clear: for the things that are in the hotwire/htmx wheelhouse, the tech works really well. It's a fantastic improvement.