Newton's financial misadventures in the South Sea Bubble (2018) | Hacker News Reader

Newton's financial misadventures in the South Sea Bubble (2018)

royalsocietypublishing.org

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For a broader story, including Newtons running of the Royal Mint, check out:

MONEY FOR NOTHING

THE SCIENTISTS, FRAUDSTERS, AND CORRUPT POLITICIANS WHO REINVENTED MONEY, PANICKED A NATION, AND MADE THE WORLD RICH

https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/thomas-levenson/m...

For an lengthy but amazing alternate-reality account of same (and much... much more), check out Neal Stephenson's Baroque Cycle

For a more rigorous treatment, try Paul Wiltmott's (a famous quant) The Money Formula

https://www.amazon.com/Money-Formula-Finance-Science-Mathema...

The audiobooks are pretty well narrated too, great for anyone who needs 160 hours of audio

Very true. Then you get to Cryptonomicon - which is set in the same universe. I think it's the best audiobook I've ever listened to.

I found that Fall; or, Dodge in Hell wraps up the whole thing very nicely!

That novel really expands the scope of the whole alternate universe dramatically. He's an amazing writer.

EDIT: nice username! Is this where you got it?

Yes - started using the username on Slashdot back on the day after reading Cryptonomicon and have used it on various places over the years... :-)

The David Liss historical novel 'A Conspiracy of Paper' was pretty nice. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Conspiracy_of_Paper

Thanks - I'll check it out.

Shockingly, this is free on Audible!

The first line:

> Science writer and MIT professor Levenson reminds readers that rulers throughout history have taxed citizens to pay bills.

Not really, the first goal of any state is to collect taxes and prevent other states to do that. First states were basically racqueteers, who robbed their subjects at gunpoint (tribute), and for the money hired larger squads, making a system with positive feedback. The conversion of tribes to states was unlikely to be peaceful.

I mean, the first priority of any state is to collect taxes, that are financing the taxation system and preventing others doing the same (military). Everything else must be secondary, otherwise other states with more efficient systems will come over.

Couple of previous discussions from 2018 and 2019

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16245284

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21007541

Thanks! Macroexpanded:

Isaac Newton's Financial Misadventures in the South Sea Bubble - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29032752 - Oct 2021 (1 comment)

Newton's Financial Misadventures in the South Sea Bubble - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21007541 - Sept 2019 (15 comments)

Newton’s Financial Misadventures in the South Sea Bubble [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16245284 - Jan 2018 (35 comments)

Much better chart someone posted in an older thread: https://i.imgur.com/AEzxuLy.jpg

More about the whole thing:

England: South Sea Bubble - The Sharp Mind of John Blunt - Extra History - Part 1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1kndKWJKB8&list=PL931Bkj5KL...

This article confirms that the common lore is broadly correct. Newton bought, stock goes up, Newton sells, realizes huge gains, stock goes up more, Newton buys again, stock crashes, Newton loses big.

What goes up must come down. Newton of all people should have known.

Stock investment can drive economic and technical development, which only needs to stop with the heat death of the universe.

This particular stock was a massive bubble though.

Newton should've invested in broad index ETFs, shame he was born a few hundred years too early.

Should've invented crypto!

Given that apple literally fell on hid head, he should have just invested in that

Not _that_ far away from a similar concept, really: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_fund#History

He only missed mutual funds (or a reasonable analogue thereof) by 50 years or so, though presumably he'd have had trouble investing in _Dutch_ ones.

I don’t know - given that an object in motion remains in motion, he might have been more of a ‘line goes up’ HODLer…

I don’t know who first derived the Earth’s escape velocity, but it requires calculus and Newton’s theory of gravity, so he should have been able to figure out that the old adage isn’t actually true.

That'd be Newton: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton%27s_cannonball

(I'm not sure if he actually derived earth's, but he was aware of escape velocity as a concept.)

One of the things I found interesting recently was that the "South Sea" part of the name refers to the South Atlantic. I'd always inferred that the "South Sea" was the South Pacific.

I suppose the term "South Pacific" is ingrained in the language, so naturally my mind takes me there with "South Sea".

Anyway, just one of those long-held beliefs that turns out yo be false.

Doh, I always thought it as South China Sea!

South Seas in popular culture typically does refer to the South Pacific and Polynesia though. I’d also say the South China Sea too.

But in Newton’s day yes, I think the colonial adventures were still very much focused on the Atlantic.

One of the smartest people who ever lived and he was still suckered, due to greed.

Precisely why one should not place much emphasis on the takes of people like Paul Graham and LeCun outside their specialization. They are as susceptible as anyone to be suckered into an ideology.

The same can also be said for Dr. Jordan Peterson. He has expertise only within his specific domain, but then once he gets political or discusses the concept of God, he comes off as uninformed and out of his element.

IQ does not mean one thing. It is a range of things. You can be totally brilliant at one thing and a complete fool on something else. It is what I call the smart person trap. You know you are smart at one thing. So therefor you are smart so therefore you are probably good at everything. Poor logic. I heard a con artist put it this way 'i love suckering smart people they think they are never wrong'.

Is someone actually smart when they aren't smart enough to realise that they can be wrong?

You would think that. But it is ego that takes over.

Newton should have known to always leave a moon bag

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