Tightly coupled, IMO.
> 2) Jquery will beat the other javascript frameworks and become the de facto standard for doing javascript.
I hope not. Love jQuery. Hate monopolies. This is in much the same way that Rails defines Ruby to some people - I hope jQuery doesn't define JavaScript in the future.
What's the meeaning of the word "monopoly" in a situation where breaking the monopoly means switching to another library? A library which, by the way, won't exist unless someone sees significant enough failings in the existing one to create an alternative, from scratch or through a fork.
Barrier to entry is the property which enables abusive monopolies, and in the open source world, is there such a thing?
Consider emacs, for instance. Elisp sucks in many ways, and we could probably build a better emacs if we started from scratch. But it will be very tough to get from here to there.