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But now you have to know at compile time what you're watching, which is not what cargo-watch or any of the similar commands like entr do.

Considering you have a rust file and the dependency why wouldn't you compile it? It's not like rustc is not available when you are using cargo-watch.

Anyway, doing all that just so you don't have to write a regexp has all the hallmarks of overkill. Keep it simple.