Not only are we within eyesight of the end, we're more or less there. o1 isn't just scaling up parameter count 10x again and making GPT-5, because that's not really an effective approach at this point in the exponential curve of parameter count and model performance.
I agree with the broader point: I'm not sure it isn't consistent with current neuroscience that our brains aren't doing anything more than predicting next inputs in a broadly similar way, and any categorical distinction between AI and human intelligence seems quite challenging.
I disagree that we can draw a line from scaling current transformer models to AGI, however. A model that is great for communicating with people in natural language may not be the best for deep reasoning, abstraction, unified creative visions over long-form generations, motor control, planning, etc. The history of computer science is littered with simple extrapolations from existing technology that completely missed the need for a paradigm shift.