The models are just an approximation to the truth. The truth is objective reality itself.
Objective reality doesn't allow us to make predictions itself, it is an nonce. Unfortunately we don't have a time reversing machine to run entropy in reverse and see the thermodynamic truth. All we have is models, your consciousness being one of them.
Indeed. There is no independent arbitor. One can imagine that the collective, consensus answer is best, or not. If it is possible to steer that answer towards something that is beneficial to someone somewhere - why wouldn't vested interests do that?
To say of that which is, that is is, or of that which is not, that it is not