I’m also in camp The Great Divergence.

Learning and using the tools to become multiples more productive is relatively hard, still.

In programming, most people still struggle with syntax. The few that get past struggle with conciseness. The few that get past end up managing everyone else instead of solving problems. LLMs move maybe a few percent up the ladder, but hardly enough to matter atm.

In other fields, there’d need to be breakthroughs, otherwise it’s literally scale. Ex: manufacturing is labor intensive and/or capital intensive, w/o a breakthrough like… robots.