The AI predictions based on Moore's law type reasoning by Kurzweil, Moravec etc have been pretty accurate and not subject to the it's always 10 years ahead thing.
"Deep learning works, and we will solve the remaining problems."
"It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!)"
Technically a few thousand days covers quite a range. 20 thousand is 55 years.
On the Kurzweil graph, extrapolating hardware progress from 1900 through 2000, superintelligence seems to be roughly 2035, depending on how you define things. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Kurzweils-8-71-chart-of-...