Hacker News Reader

> * P(correct) = (1-e)^n * This diverges exponentially

I don't get it, 1-e is between 0 and 1, so (1-e)^n converge to zero. Also, a probability cannot diverge since it's bounded by 1!

I think the argument is that 1 - e^n converges to 1, which is what the law is about.

View on HN

P(correct) converges to zero, so you get almost certainly incorrect, at an exponential rate. The original choice of terms is not the most rigorous, but the reasoning is sound (under the assumption that e is a constant).

P(correct) doesn't go down with token count if you have self-correction. It can actually go up with token count.

Ah yes I didn't pay attention that it was the probability of being correct I misread it as the probability of being incorrect since the claim was that it diverged.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com