It is obviously the increase in those who haven’t checked boxes. There have been so many articles about this and nearly every article has a comment from an Asian student saying they work to ensure their essays don’t reveal their race. Clearly the college admission advisors are telling Asian students to not mention their race.
Also, I’m not sure if international students count here but there’s likely been a drop in Asian students applying to US universities which if they do count may affect the numbers as well.