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Comment by itkovian_ | Hacker News Reader

Tsmc will never allow the Arizona plant to be a viable replacement. They are extremely incentived to prevent this happening.

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That's OK. It's on US soil with US employees and can be nationalized if and when need be. I'm sure ASML will be happy to comply or else risk their US operations being nationalized too. Like their DUV/EUV light sources office https://www.asml.com/en/company/about-asml/locations/san-die...

Holy shit they have 1,900 employees for that

Yup. Just pass another tiktok bill to force sell factory to US buyer.

It doesn't need to be a viable replacement. Even if it only ever makes chips that are 1-2 years behind, it's still a huge strategic benefit for the country.

Does it have to be or does it just have to be enough to be a deterrent to China?

I wonder if the strategy behind the CHIPS act is to have enough “backup” capacity in the US that it isn’t completely vulnerable.

China’s interest in Taiwan is about controlling the sea routes, not about chips.

How so? They also are extremely incentivised to make this happen. A war on your front door is not good for business.

Tsmc is mostly governed by Taiwanese who would like to maintain Taiwanese sovereignty

Taiwan might be a more appealing target if all of TSMC's output is located there.

My thinking is less appealing, because the more USA depends on them the more USA will defend them.

TSMC is governed by the Taiwanese ruling class. If the Chinese launches a widespread attack on Taiwanese soil tomorrow, nothing would happen to any of these people. These people are not your random neighbors harboring nationalistic views.

You don't have to be a rabid nationalist to not wish for your country to be invaded and annexed by others. You don't even have to live there. I'm sure a large percentage of Taiwanese living in countries outside of Taiwan would not wish for it to be invaded.

I'm not even Taiwanese, don't know anyone of Taiwanese descent well, and I don't want Taiwan invaded.

The suggestion that there's some kind of weird oligarchy class of TSMC-controlling Taiwanese who couldn't give a toss if Taiwan was invaded is a mustache-twirling level of caricature.

Don’t all the machines in Taiwan have explosives fitted in case of invasion?

TSMC is governed by the Taiwanese government, which is a puppet government controlled by the US government and military. TSMC answers to the US directly, as without US support, Taiwan falls to China almost instantly. Nobody besides the US can prevent a blockade of Taiwan

A "puppet government".

This claim is based on... Them wanting not to be invaded?

If anything they had the foresight and took advantage of US companies not wanting to fab their chips at higher prices domestically. This has led to cooperation between the two.

I see this argument in some fashion every day, claiming US allies are puppets. When in fact, they just find commonalities and cooperate.

the strength of the US defense commitment is likely proportional to the strategic value of the economic assets they still hold. the taiwanese have every incentive to do just well enough at the AZ plant for the $39 Billion checks to clear and no better

While true, TSMC has a stronger incentive for its own survival than the survival of Taiwan. If it's easier for them to shift operations to the US and continue to make $$$, I suspect they'd do that over retaining operations in Taiwan and hoping it will convince the US to protect the country.

The biggest shareholder of TSMC is the Taiwan government.

This factory is not for economic independence or economic strategy. It is for geopolitical strategy. This factory is meant to build smarter munitions if war breaks out, not the latest cellphone. The US gov does not give a fuck about Apple's stock price and product plans if war breaks out with China, since, you know, there's real adult problems going on.

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