> China leads or is on par with global leaders in commercial nuclear power and electric vehicles and batteries. It lags behind for now in other key sectors, including robotics, biopharmaceuticals, chemicals, and AI. But it is making rapid progress.
Certainly China is catching up and it would be naive to sleep on them, but it is magnitudes easier to catch up than it is to lead (e.g. it is magnitudes easier to learn calculus than to invent it). It is hard to make serious predictions without understanding how to lead in certain niches and a broad overview of the economy will not tell us too much about specific sectors. There's plenty of niches that Europe leads the US (and China) in too. But the conversation is all pretty complicated. And success in one sector or niche does not seem to be a strong predictor of innovation in others. Similarly success in catching up does not seem to be a strong predictor of ability to lead. This is all related to the Middle Income trap and China has probably come out the other side but it's not clear yet and this is all very fuzzy.
FWIW, I want to see more competition on the global scale. Everyone benefits if there is healthy competition. Though this can also lead to war if things get too competitive. But if our main method of "war" is "making shit better and cheaper so everyone buys from us" then bring it on! (Maybe we can get a "war" where countries flaunt their impressiveness by bringing about post scarcity. I'm certain that that country and leader will be remembered all throughout history as one who set forth an entirely new paradigm of human civilization. AND this is /reasonably/ feasible, though no easy task)