Right now, you're more of the post-2014 invasion of Crimea camp, "let's not act too rash about helping Ukraine against Russia, hopefully they won't do anything more."
From someone who predicted the invasion of Ukraine: https://www.amazon.com/World-Brink-America-Twenty-First-Cent...
(which among other things mentioned "putting an end to a scourge, which has so long desolated Africa, degraded Europe, and afflicted humanity.")
I see it more as the beginnings of US regional Hegemony and notable for two things, how it began and future attitudes to world affairs.
In the beginning (from the wikipedia link):
Great Britain shared the general objective of the Monroe Doctrine, and even wanted to declare a joint statement to keep other European powers from further colonizing the New World. The British feared their trade with the New World would be harmed if the other European powers further colonized it. In fact, for many years after the doctrine took effect, Britain, through the Royal Navy, was the sole nation enforcing it, the U.S. lacking sufficient naval capability.
In real politik the thirteen colonies were business investment startups by British Venture Capitalists who retained contacts, contracts, and business ties after reducing the meddling abilities of that pesky king in finnancial arrangements.
The now independent colonies and new independent nation remaind largely Anglophile while the old order saw no conflict of interest in the use of their navy in the defence of mutual interest.
Foggy Bottom* has always been a part of Oceania?
* pedantry: the actual State Dep't were in Philadelphia at the time
Lagniappe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Influence_of_Sea_Power_upo...
EDIT: looking at en.wikipedia's entry for the results of the War of 1812, it offers pretty heavy evidence for your position:
- Anglo–American status quo ante bellum
- Spanish control over West Florida weakened and Mobile territory claimed
- Tecumseh's confederacy decisively defeated and dissolved
I think it strange to have a war that doesn't alter the positions of the principals, but does allow them to take a few third parties off the board; on the other hand that just may be my naivete.
Come to think of it, the causus belli of 1812 was Royal Navy impressment of US sailors: I can easily imagine some Sir "stick close to your desks and never go to sea" Joseph being surprised and wondering why the americans had been so confused as to miss the main point: providing manpower for Britannia's rule of the waves was in their own best interests, after all.
The invasion of Tibet is the most relevant example here. Tibet was internationally recognized as part of China, but was de facto independent, similarly to Taiwan nowadays. The PRC invaded as soon as it won the civil war, because it was one of the last parts of China that was still beyond the control of the central government. However, I think it's clear that the PRC today views an invasion of Taiwan as a last resort, not as the policy of choice.
Ukraine is a different affair. The CIA funded political parties during the Euromaidan/Automaidan, which resulted in internal conflict that led to the current state of affairs. The only reason they could predict it was that it was their goal.
You talk about CIA operations during the Euromaidan, but forget the elephant in the room that is objectively true: the Euromaidan was a response to a Russian controlled Ukrainian president betraying his people who were expecting closer ties with the EU and instead doing a deal with Russia last minute.
It is true that it was a revolt against a corrupt regime, but it's also true that this regime was openly pro-Russian and Russian backed, against the will of its people.
You again have a big ol' blindspot for Russian corruption and meddling in Ukraine. You've made up your mind a long time ago and arguing with you is useless, you're just crafting a narrative that confirms your faith.
The "current state of affairs" is due entirely to Putin's conscious decision to invade, starting in 2014, in the total absence of any meaningful threat to Russia's security.
Not due to anything happening inside Ukraine, or anything the US supposedly did or did not do there.