I think it is equally likely that LLMs will perform worse in the future, because of copyright reasons and increased privacy awareness, leading to less diverse data sets to train on.
The only barrier right now is that laptop/phone hardware can't run them (inference and/or training) fast enough. That's a problem that won't really exist 3 to 10 years from now.
That's ignoring the fact that creation of new much much better models is going full steam ahead.
I hope to be right or I will be jobless lol
No, it's just as complex as it was 30, 50 years ago. Because complexity is limited by developers' brains. As there was no noticeable evolution in last years the humans abilities stay the same. But there are many more humans involved in development. This makes the total complexity much higher.
> LLM will become a tool to use in your work
Not sure where you live, it's already very useful at work. Saves a lot of time. The effect is like from the internet with search engines. It doesn't make the work easier or lower the requirements. It makes developers, in this case, more productive.
"AI" as we're calling it is aggressively defacto open-source, and I can see in no way how that competition doesn't drive down prices.
Perhaps you are missing something in my arguments that I can clear up?
Yes, it would cost kabillions to recreate Linux from scratch. But no one has to anymore because it's here and anyone can just grab it.
Same with the models. What I can download right now from Huggingface is going to be 90% or more already there, and I can tweak them at home, despite how much it may have cost to make them in the first place.
To be useful in practice, one must train with new data, say every year or so. Who is going to pay for harvesting and cleaning all that data? And as I understand it, some form of RLHF is also required, which involves some manual labour as well.
Perhaps some day this will all be very cheap, and it might even be done by AI systems instead of humans, but I wouldn't bet my horse on it.
As in, I may not be able to do "general knowledge," but who will pay for that anyway (e.g. instead of baking it in to their Google killer?)
Building LLMs is dropping in cost quickly. Back in mid 2023 training an 7B model had already dropped to $30K and it's even cheaper now.
> I think it is equally likely that LLMs will perform worse in the future, because of copyright reasons and increased privacy awareness, leading to less diverse data sets to train on.
I'll bet a lot of money this won't happen.
Firstly copyright isn't settled on this. Secondly people understand a lot more now about how to use less, higher quality data and how to use synthetic data (eg MS Phi series, Persona dataset etc and of course the upcoming OpenAI Strawberry and Orion models which use synthetic data heavily). Thirdly the knowledge about how to use multi-modal data in your LLM is much more widely spread, which means that video and code can both be used to improve LLM performance.