the US should place a value of $1.17M per additional birth
model-thinking.com
model-thinking.com
As far as I can see there isn't enough for everyone to do now anyway, even before AI really comes into its own.
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The industrial revolution increased productivity x100 and poverty still exists. We could materially solve it right now, easily. It's designed to be like that
People dying of hunger, people not having clean water, people dying because the $5 antibiotic shot isn't available in their country, &c.
I don't care about relative poverty here, aka poverty threshold, which is by definition a moving threshold. For exemple in France the poverty threshold is defined as 60% of the median income, it doesn't tell you much about the "real" poverty
It's almost as if GDP doesn't mean jack shit since it's been completely misused from its intended purpose
Generally, GDP means a lot in relation to other indicators (including those for well-being).
GDP was an OK metric in a post war industrial world, not in whatever we could call what we're dealing with since the 90s, and even more since most of our "production" are services, GDP was just not meant to deal with that, not in any way that is meaningful to us in this discussion (and on top of that it is much better at measuring quantities than qualities)
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/gdp-is-the-wrong-...
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-ke....
Like yeah sure it tells you things, a very narrow set on things
We don't have the coal, we don't have the oil, we don't have the copper, the steel, the yadda yadda. Earth overshoot day was apparently last month. Less births is almost literally the only humane way I can think of to improve on that situation. That or cheap energy; the situation is hopeful on that front but we don't need to purposefully goose the birth rate since maybe something will go wrong with plan A.
That's very very very far from poverty...
What about everyone living like the average eastern european ? That's already a 2-10x drop of wealth, still far from poverty
Who said we’d choose the humane option?
We have the steel, there is no way we run out of it, we could wrap the entire earth in steel coating and still not run out, and that is just what we have easily available.
You're talking about "I can't buy the brand new iphone max pro" poverty while we have the "I will lose my hands to leprosy because the 10$ antibiotics were too expensive" poverty
It's getting better. Not as fast as it could or should, but it's getting better!!
A gambler living the high life in Vegas, all paid for by opening one new credit card after another, would undoubtedly tell you that his life is getting better, too.
Aside from fossil fuels, no, this is not the biggest problem. And for fossil fuels it's more a problem of lack of disposal resource for the CO2, not the fossil fuels themselves.
People keep saying this, but it’s been proven wrong over and over again since the 19th century. Malthus was wrong.
> This weird effect where wealth reduces birth rate is a fantastic and unexpected reprieve that is probably not going to be permanent but there is no call to try and engineer its reversal.
It’s not “nature.” It’s the result of anti-natalist eugenics ideology created by mainline Protestants in the 20th century in response to a moral panic about rising Catholic and black populations. They exported that ideology around the world through NGOs in the form of population control ideology. (My dad started his career at a Planned Parenthood affiliate in Bangladesh figuring out how to have less Bangladeshis. Planned Parenthood, of course, was started by Margaret Sanger, an Episcopalian and eugenicist.) East Asian countries that bought that ideology are now desperately trying to reverse the effects.
> Let nature take its course and adjust for any population problems with immigration.
You can’t maintain a developed society with mass immigration. Sweden and Denmark have already reverse course on immigration and I expect the rest of Western Europe will follow.
2) Have even lawyers like you dropped the 'fewer' vs 'less' distinction? I would have thought that you were old and conservative enough that 'less Bangladeshis' would be to grating to write. :)
When my dad was born in 1951, Bangladesh had a population of 38 million. People already thought it was full. Now, it has a population of 171 million. At the same time, infant mortality decreased by 7/8ths, so it is now lower in Bangladesh than it was in the U.S. in the 1960s. The country is now self-sufficient in the production of rice, fish, and vegetables. And Bangladesh hasn't even begun to maximize technology. The Netherlands is the second largest exporter of agricultural products in the world, despite being 1/3 the size of Bangladesh (which itself is only a bit bigger than Virginia): https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2022/net....
Regarding "fewer" versus "lesser": I'm usually pretty pedantic about that, but I think my brain fed me "lesser" to convey, in the context of that sentence, how population control advocates tend to view Asians as an undifferentiated mass.
But the majority [0] of studies on p. 3 suggest the carrying capacity is 8 billion or less. And I suspect that if we dig most of those studies aren't anticipating everyone lives with an overwhelming abundance of material comfort. We've already got more people on the globe than we know what to do with.
[0] Technical correctness, the best type.
It is desirable to limit population growth nonetheless, and I think this will happen naturally, although possibly not soon enough.
I don't have any magic bullet for reducing population growth; helping the poor get wealthier and more educated faster should help bring birth rates to just below the 2.1 children per couple (replacement rate) and get us to a soft landing.
This directly leads to political instability and lowered wages for the local population, and is decidedly not helpful.
Why in the world should we engineer a society that is not self replicating, and burden our children with lower wages, just to save big businesses (who are the only people who thrive when importing labor).
1-2 billion people living a jet-set lifestyle would be far harder on our planet than 10 billion not.
Just incredibly wrong about this
> We conclude that the US government should be willing to pay up to $290,000, overall, to each parent who gives birth.
This is a weirdly short-sighted suggestion after all that analysis. Getting paid to have children can easily cause the value metric per child to plummet; not to mention the probable suffering caused to the children whose parents might try to abuse it.
If you want to increase births, things like subsidizing daycare and after-care and taking steps to ensure the quality of care are helpful. Making the cost of having children lower indirectly is much less likely to be abused.
Additionally, if you want to increase the value of children to society, making teaching a more appealing profession (i.e. paying more) and taking steps to ensure the quality of teachers are helpful.
Most of my adult family members immigrated to the U.S./Canada/Australia as adults. They are still Bangladeshis. If you imported 50 million of them, and allowed them to vote and participate in civic institutions, you would turn Canada or Australia into Bangladesh.
You need both
That strategy is going to fail from simple math. Birthrates are dropping everywhere, and IIRC world fertility is at replacement or maybe even a little bit below it today. Immigrants have be born somewhere, and if that policy works at all, it will only amount to exporting the problem to places even less equipped to deal with it.
Do liberals really want to do what it takes to implement the immigration strategy (e.g. hold down Africa and keep it really poor, so its birthrates remain high and Western countries [and China, and India!] can raid it for population forever)?
Why?
Instead of maintaining our current massive population, we should seek to improve efficiency.
Ensure every child receives a comprehensive education.
Ensure every human has time and energy for creative endeavors, rather than just paying the rent.
And so on.
Population isn't the problem, how we structure society is.
I would guess that many are actually making a living fixing tv's in a nairobi slum, or conjuring their own pantheon in a south american jungle, etc, etc.
I can totally see this getting exploited. Yes, you'll get some more well educated, mentally sane people to have more kids. For sure. But I think you'll get a ton more kids from people who are at the bottom of society such as criminals. If the kids born aren't raised well, they could be a net negative to society rather than a net $1.03m to the economy.
So... I assume there's a bunch of "per capitas" missing from this?
Or are they trying to persuade us that an additional birth is worth 14.28*$25.44 trillion = $363 trillion ?
I could be persuaded to supply one additional birth for just $1 trillion, if anyone is buying at that price.
Are you sure about the physical labor part? Because I'm yet to see a machine make fruit pickers, plumbers, construction workers, oil & gas workers, landscapers, or caregivers even remotely not viable anymore in the workplace. Meanwhile I'm seeing machines put various graphic designers out of jobs right now.
Who's jobs do you think the companies will go after first in the race to replace expensive labor with cheaper automation? The minimum wage burger flippers or migrant fruit pickers barely paid 10$/hour who gets no vacation and sick leave, or, the web developer/graphic designers paid $60+/hour who gets healthcare, paid time off, free meals and massages at work?
What is an actual reality is that more and more physical work is actually being completed by fewer and fewer people.
In my lifetime I've seen first hand, since the 1970s, mining and agriculture expand production dramatically with smaller work forces being required through the multiplying magic of SBFM (Seriously Big Flippin' Machines) - Haulpacks, Tractors, Ships, Trucking, Trains, have grown is size; blast patterns for fracturing rock have increased their field sizes, continuous conveyors moving 100s of tonnes per hour have multiplied in parallel.
As for fruit picking, maybe look at orchard automation - there are many examples of tight geometric spacings for trees that are robo-mowed to supress weeds and harvested by laying down ground sheets and using hydralic tree shakers to bring down and gather up fruit, etc.
Maybe watch more Landline - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landline_(TV_series)
The companies go after the jobs that are culturally hip to go after. I initially wrote something here trying to describe which jobs should really be automated but it was so vague I now think we are clueless until we try.
You could [say] hardcode the asshole employee manager and he/it would no doubt be worse than the human asshole in more aspects than one but he/it would also have many advantages that we cant pretend to enumerate without doing the experiment.
Who is to say we cant feed the world if we build enough autonomous chicken farm guard bots with high speed solar powered egg drones?
Who is to say what a 60/hour web dev can do with the help of some robots?
Many countries are starting to see a critical lack of farmers, fishermen, hunters, and other people working in agriculture. Healthcare is also starting to suffer.
The robot automation will happen, probably either in our or the next generation's lifetimes, because there just aren't enough workers either due to lack of will (poor pay) or lack of literal humans.
> Birth rates are near or below replacement in all but the world’s poorest countries
As "Too many of the wrong kind of people are being born. How can we get more of the right kind?"
The entire underlying premise of the article is that the population should continue to grow forever or human progress is doomed. But that's not proven. And even if it were, I don't like "eugenics, but for nationalities instead of genetics" as the answer.
As I see things, it's a fact that, 1.) Immigration exists and is good, and 2.) it doesn't take very many years of education to turn someone from a disadvantaged background into a scientifically savvy modern person. If the author of this article merely forgot that, then that's quite an oversight. But you're right, it was uncharitable of me to assume he didn't forget, and actually thinks that either 1) or 2) are false. So I retract my cynicism and replace it with constructive criticism.
I see how your take fits in the current "polarise everything" craze but the bigger issue imho is that our modern way of life is actively destroying itself, consumerism is toxic to itself
Don't think of it as a craze. Think of it more like, America just had a president that referred to many poor countries as "shitholes" and tried to block immigration from them. And as someone who has people they care deeply about who are immigrants from those countries, I have an increased sensitivity to certain dogwhistles which *absolutely* are being blown by some people. If I accidentally hear that dog whistle where the person only meant to discuss wealth, I hope you can understand why.
Fewer healthier wealthier people living sustainably with the planet harnessing vast amounts of energy and automation.
That’s a wonderful future to look forward to.
Declining birth rates and increasing health spans are humans adjusting to resource constraints.