Data is based only on non-financial firms; I wonder what is the effect size of this exclusion. Economy said to be migrating up the value chain to financial services and using pervasive financial engineering, in GE, pharma, fintech, etc. The prospect of higher interest and more taxes would drive more such engineering.

Another question is the stock value loss attributable to dwindling market competition depressing innovation and demand.

Another is demand for stock: P/E multiples going up while most people are under increasing economic stress and lower investment puts all the burden on current stock owners to reinvest, but asset-weighted individual investors might be aging out.

Again, unclear effect size to all this. Hard to imagine being an economist.

But in any case signaling that US stocks long-term are likely to be bad seems counter-productive except as a threat to the incoming administration against increasing rates and taxation.