I agree with your stance - that being said there aren’t two options, one being identical or radically different. It’s not even a gradient between two choices, because there are several dimensions involved and nobody even knows what Superintelligence is anyways.

If you wanted to reduce it down, I would say there are two possibilities:

1. Our understanding of Neurel Nets is currently sufficient to recreate intelligence, consciousness, or what have you

2. We’re lacking some understanding critical to intelligence/conciousness.

Given that with a mediocre math education and a week you could pretty completely understand all of the math that goes into these neurel nets, I really hope there’s some understand we don’t yet have