Nah, the Brazilian government will lose this round. X is not going to cave, and the government doesn’t have the technological capacity to quickly spin up their own Great Firewall.
Free speech absolutists should be just as irritated by today's X as yesterday's Twitter. Subbing out one set of permitted speech for a different set is not a free speech win.
January 8th in Brazil - "troubled Southern American country", "broken democracy", "banana republic"
January 6th in the US - just a blip in the world's most perfect democracy. etc.