Numbers are impressive, not sure why it's down in AH.
They literally guided more growth for the next quarter and Nvidia is notorious for sandbagging this number.
Not achieving those results does not imply that results are going downhill from now, as you suggest.
Slowing growth and cooling margins are reasonable explanations for the stock being down even in light of continued growth.
If the market believed that demand had indeed peaked this quarter as you suggest, the stock would absolutely crater.
But nobody reasonable believes that. All the data from outside Nvidia (eg: Capex from hyperscalers) also points to continued growth.
Besides Apple, who can't be forced to build server hardware at gunpoint, Nvidia is the only TSMC customer bringing HPC to the consumer. That's an enormous segment they can capitalize on, and AI is really just the tip of the iceberg. With so many other OEMs laser-focused on AI performance, they're entirely glossing over the flexibility that made CUDA successful in the first place. Pour another one out for OpenCL, the industry hardly knew ye.
TSMC doesn’t sell chips directly, they just manufacture designs
It's just that the rate of growth is slowing and when nvda is at a 45 P/E, you need high growth to justify its market cap.
So market likely sees decelerating growth which can't justify such a high P/E. e.g. if growth fell to say 30% YOY in a year, nvda would be seen as overvalued today.
That's a PEG ratio of 1.5 [1], below the S&P 500's forward 2.63 [2]. (EDIT: It's 1.4x [3].)
Wild times.
[1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp
[2] https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/spgi/price-ear...
I'm seeing 17% projected growth in earnings: https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_earnings_per_share_ttm...
P/e is 24. ($493 billion quarterly earnings, $47 trillion market cap). - and yes, nvda is literally alone 6% of sp500 earnings.
Peg is 1.4 as a comparable to the way I calculated Nvidia.
Yes. Yes it is.
Earnings beat is almost always Mainstream, Newbie, Normie focus.
Quarterly Earnings can be (legally) cooked to tell whatever numbers you want. Revenue Growth and Operating Margins always tell the bigger story
More volatility to be expected during the call if/when they finally address the rumors of Blackwell delays.
It could be due to gross margins, though they're pretty much in line with estimates [1]. I'd guess it's noise from options rebalancing [2].
[1] https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-forecasts-third-qu...
[2] https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-results-could-spur...
Probably not unless there is a lot of retail on one side of the 0D options book. Also, it would be a reverse squeeze, not short ladder, which is largely a mythical beast invented to salve day traders.
Now it is the company with the second largest market cap in the world and enormous growth, so analysts are watching it more and talking about it more. Results are more baked in.
Also, it was announced the next-gen Blackwell chips had a flaw found late in the design and will probably be delayed three months, which will also affect revenues.
Looks like things are slowing down (second derivative)
Important question: is it demand or manufacturing capability?
It was a stratospheric comeback but people who expected a linear trajectory from that are missing the context
Nvidia is totally supply constraint as it can easily be seen. They also underguide every quarter for 2 years and beating it. But if you look closely then you can easily see the $4b QoQ growth. That is the constant there since 2022.
Blackwell will add additional supply next year. I don't think Hopper wills top shipping and I don't think demand will fall. So next year QoQ absolute growth could go up which will probably surprise to the upside.