The Thin Purple Line
harpers.org
harpers.org
It was routine for homeowners to hire armed nightwatchmen. In Nigeria, we had a Touareg guy, with a scimitar. In Morocco, our neighbor had guys with machine guns (which meant we didn’t need much more than a wall), but we lived in a nice area. Our neighbor had some relation to the King. In Uganda, our watchman had a staff (and a holstered pistol).
South Africa has so much crime, that even the poorest neighborhoods have broken-glass walls.
And, I'm not the one saying it. Nigeria routinely purges thousands of ghost officers from salary rosters and recently claimed it had 80k ghost cops. In a country of 200 million. So, it's a no-brainer why private security is a better deal once you have the means. They're available 24/7 and often have guns, and backup, and other tech.
This was shortly after the Westgate Shopping Mall attack. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westgate_shopping_mall_attack
That was probably a cop in plainclothes. Private citizens don't open-carry as a matter of course in Kenya.
The marginal calculus could be tipping, but imo less from issues of social cohesion and more from an abdication of enforcement that necessitates more guard labor in the form of private security.
Another partial explanation is just that retail orgs are overreacting and/or cynically crafting a narrative to explain poor business decisions or changing economic conditions.[2][3][4]
> “Maybe we cried too much last year” about merchandise losses, Walgreens finance chief James Kehoe acknowledged Thursday on an earnings call.
> “Probably we put in too much, and we might step back a little bit from that,” he said of security staffing.
> However, it’s not clear the numbers add up. For example, data released by the San Francisco Police Department does not support the explanation Walgreens gave that it was closing five stores because of organized retail theft, the San Francisco Chronicle reported in 2021. One of the shuttered stores that closed had only seven reported shoplifting incidents in 2021 and a total of 23 since 2018, according to the newspaper. Overall, the five stores that closed had fewer than two recorded shoplifting incidents a month on average since 2018.
> The National Retail Federation had said that nearly half of the industry’s $94.5 billion in missing merchandise in 2021 was the result of organized theft. It was likely closer to 5 percent, experts say.
[1] https://www.vox.com/2023/12/23/24012514/police-crime-data-so...
[2] https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/06/business/walgreens-shopliftin...
[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/08/business/organized-shopli...
[4] https://popular.info/p/off-target
*caveat that crime data is really complicated, don't take the numbers too literally
edit: found it
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-08-01/why-cvs-a...
That might be true but it certainly hasn't made me feel good about watching people walk out with a big jug of wine, electronics, a case of toilet paper, etc. That last one provoked some curiosity - are their circumstances so bad that it's worth risking jail time or are there so little consequences that it's the equivalent of self check-out?
I mean, the entire reason Allied Universal exists is because security (and therefore "guard labor") IS NOT a growth industry. A stable or declining industry inevitably leads to consolidation of the type that formed Allied Universal.
US active-duty military personnel:
2023: 1,268,027 (378 per 100k)
2003: 1,434,377 (492 per 100k)
1983: 2,123,349 (921 per 100k)
https://historyinpieces.com/research/us-military-personnel-1...
https://usafacts.org/state-of-the-union/defense/
Employed full time: Wage and salary workers: Bailiffs, correctional officers, and jailers occupations: 16 years and over:
2023: 365,000 (109 per 100k)
2000: 395,000 (139 per 100k)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU0254491500A
Employed full time: Wage and salary workers: Police and sheriff's patrol officers occupations: 16 years and over
2023: 686,000 (205 per 100k)
2000: 567,000 (201 per 100k)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU0254491900A
Population
2023: 339,996,563
2003: 291,109,820
2000: 282,398,554
1983: 230,389,964
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/uni...
edit: Found it! Employed full time: Wage and salary workers: Security guards and gaming surveillance officers occupations: 16 years and over
2023: 730,000 (218 per 100k)
2000: 621,000 (219 per 100k)
In any case in communism majority of theft was committed by the workers themselves, so any guards would likely be in on it anyway.
The real economic system and its currency at the same time was the massive web of connections and favours. How does one guard that?
My grandfather, who was a surgeon, was reportedly particularly good at obtaining scarce goods like toilet paper - most likely as a token of gratitude for the procedures he performed.
Friedrich Hayek wrote on the topic of defending private property as a right to assert control [1]. To me, this feels particularly prevalent in high capitalist societies like the US, where the bond between people is not shared tradition, culture, and values - but rather personal freedom.
[1] https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/friedrich-hayek-dictatorshi...
Communist societies would be more likely to set wages by government.
Did you know that during GWOT, US military personnel deployed to combat zones were more likely to be killed in a car accident after returning home than they were to be actually killed in combat?
Cops being abusive pigs doesn’t invalidate the logic behind the law, but then again it always has been the uneven enforcement that’s the problem
In countries where the clan is the organizing principle, in contrast, your family members act as a check on your behavior, but those family members do not count as guards. (If you live in the US, your family has less influence on you because you need them less.)
[citation needed]
Cooperation _isn't_ the natural state of people, and we need to make sure we're increasing the benefits of working together and not just the punishments for crime. Right now, the benefits of the economy are accruing disproportionately to the wealthiest and we need to do something about that, because we're destroying the motivation for people at the bottom rungs to "play nice".
The job was mostly consistent with this article, which was well-written and humanizing for the workers, if not necessarily endearing them to us.
I’m glad I had the experience. I got to see a lot of niche trade shows and conventions from setup to tear down which I never would have thought to attend otherwise, as well as see how lading workers made it all happen behind the scenes.
One time I arrived at what I thought was to be a normal shift at a women’s leadership conference to be pulled aside by my boss, who told me in unambiguous terms that the First Lady would be dropping by for a speech, and I would be working a door opposite an eminently large and in charge Secret Service agent, who I’ll charitably say didn’t need me but as I was one of a only a few of my company’s event security for that particular event, we essentially acted as liaisons between the event/house security and the public. Beyond that point was authorized access only, which did not include our staff, as we were not necessary.
Another notable incident involved a conference for the American Psychiatric Association, protesters from the Church of Scientology, and actual, literal, capital-A Anonymous counter-protesters in Guy Fawkes masks.
It was just the CoS at first, and then someone must have said something on Twitter or something, because suddenly there was a flash mob of CoS outnumbered by Anons roughly 2:1, with around 50-75 participants if I had to guess. All while we have a strait-laced normie psych con going on.
We had to lockdown the center, locking all exterior public entry doors, move badge checks outside temporarily, and threw up some barricades at the sidewalk to provide a buffer zone between the sidewalk and the center entrance. The whole thing probably lasted a couple hours or less, but it was probably the most San Francisco thing I experienced at that particular job.
I even asked Aubrey Cottle about it when he did a Reddit AMA, and he seemed to be a least familiar with the occurrence:
https://old.reddit.com/r/anonymous/comments/iclxtc/comment/g...
Stay safe, HN.
rather strange trip to see the same arrive in the us
I was glad to read that the author had to do some walking as part of the job as it sounded like he would have benefited from the exercise, yet even that didn't seem to soften his aspirational contempt for people who do physical work.
The one thing I would advocate for in the private security business would be fitness standards as that sets a bar for some basic competence that would add a dynamic with more dignity and respect in the role. Even though I would agree the whole job is the living symbol of policy failures and naive sentimental politics, if there's a bet to make on growth, managing the consequences of those failures seems like an unlimited opportunity.
ugh. spurious reasoning
When areas or situations are unsafe people must make compensating behaviors to protect themselves because nothing else will protect them. They don't go out at night, they don't go out alone, they avoid looking like they have valuables, they especially don't go out at night alone with valuables while being a woman. They take longer routes to avoid worse places, they don't make eye contact. They carry weapons. They change to the other side of the street.
The effect of these compensating behaviors is that the recorded rates of crime go down and can continue to drop even as the level of safety and imposition on people's lives goes up. In that case they're not more safe, they're less, but they're not relying on the people whos crime stats we look to for as much protection as they did... which brings me to:
Another reason drawing this connection can be fallacious is because in areas of persistently high crime people don't report it because law enforcement will not do anything about it (or won't even take a report). Exceptional events are worth reporting but when a kind of crime is common it's not an exception, reporting is just a waste of time for everyone involved. Again, reported crime can go down while crime is going up.
Yet another reason why these figures can be misleading is because the nature of the crimes can change. In one location most shootings may at one point have been drug dealers shooting each other in turf wars, but later they begin shooting uninvolved residents as part of robberies. While its terrible that anyone is getting shot, criminals shooting each other is rightfully less of a concern because it has the obvious personal mitigation of not being involved in the illicit drug trade (for this example...). So yet another reason why you can hear from people that they are less safe even when the stats say crime is decreasing-- essentially simpsons paradox: the way you aggregate or disaggreate data can swap the direction of a trend. No person experiences the population's crime rate, each person experiences their own crime rate.
And sure there are also plenty of effects in the other direction too-- the 24 hour news cycle, open records laws, social media feeds, ubiqitous cameras-- all making some people feel like they're in the middle of a warzone even when they're perfectly safe. But the existence of biases in one direction doesn't make the other not exist. And for some people and places the net bias may be one way while for other people and places its another.
This theory can't explain the plunge in violent crime rates, as the plunge exists even in the National Crime Victimization Survey, which directly asks survey respondents if they have been the victim of a crime. The annual rate of violent victimization has dropped from 80 per 1000 in the early 1990s to about 20 per 1000 now. https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/cv22.pdf
Your point about "compensating behaviors" is plausible, but doesn't explain the similar drop in property crime (burglary, motor vehicle theft, etc.), for which there are fewer compensating behaviors that could work.
The decline in crime since the early 1990s is actually a major area of study for criminologists, because there is no easy explanation for it. All categories have decline, however they are measured, and in 30 years the field has not come up with an explanation that can account for all the observed facts.
Counterpoint:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposur...
The lead-crime hypothesis has the advantage over many other theories that it explains the global drop in crime, not just that in a particular nation or municipality.
For instance, for theft, respondents are asked separately about 8 different categories of things that might have been stolen.
Then, if any crimes are mentioned, they're asked an entire follow-up about each incident, including 35 pages of questions: https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/ncvs22_cir.pdf
To account for memory problems with dates (people are bad at remembering how long ago something happened), respondents have follow-up interviews every six months to ask about events that happened in between interviews, so the results can be compared to their previous survey six months ago.
You can find more details and reports on their site here: https://bjs.ojp.gov/data-collection/ncvs
Staying in may increase your personal safety but won't decrease the crime rate. In fact in a "prisoner's dilemma" kind of way it probably makes the empty streets more dangerous.