NASA says data will guide whether astronauts return on troubled Starliner | Hacker News Reader

NASA says data will guide whether astronauts return on troubled Starliner

washingtonpost.com

21 pointshoward94127 comments

Part of making data-driven decisions is knowing when you don't have enough data, which seems to be a theme with this incident. Lots of uncertainty.

I don't entirely get why this is even a decision.

You have a capsule that failed on its first crewed flight and is built by a company plagued by technical mismanagement with multiple high-profile failures over years. On the other hand, you have a capsule that has flown 10 times with crew and another 10 without to the ISS with its predecessor flying 23 times.

It's not even a question. Do the math on the fall-out of the capsule failing and having to retrain 2 new astronauts. It's entirely incalculable and immoral to put them back on that capsule.

I am not a fan of Elon as a person anymore but this is exactly why reusable rockets and cheaper space travel is good. Spend the money, get them home safe, cut off Boeing.

> Spend the money, get them home safe, cut off Boeing

Fine them. And then take that fine and your savings from cutting them and use it to help scale a true SpaceX competitor. Every dollar going to Boeing cements SpaceX’s dominance.

> I don't entirely get why this is even a decision.

The Washington "circle of life" looks like this:

1. Boeing buys politicians.

2. Politicians determine NASA's budget, promotions, and programs.

3. NASA has a program to buy from Boeing.

4. Boeing buys politicians.

> Boeing buys politicians

Boeing's power doesn't come from buying politicians, however one describes that. (They're not accused of paying bribes. Most politicians don't wind up working or speaking for Boeing.) Boeing's power comes from its facilities and thus jobs in every pivotal district. That gives them votes and voices.

Space and defence are niche topics. Most voters are civically unengaged. Those that are tend to engage on social issues. Once language is introduced, a Congressperson who doesn't really care about the bill getting ten calls going one way and zero another is probably going to vote 'aye' because it's a costless give.

(Presently, their GR team is taking a page out of Arianespace's book in positioning them as the only alternative to Elon Musk.)

  - I hope those astronauts get home safe.
  - Great if the Starliner can get them home eventually.
  - If not I am sure SpaceX can ferry them home.
  - Long term it's good for NASA to have multiple options for sending crew to space.

Every time an article on this subject pops up, I tend to wonder if the 2 astronauts will ever just 'call it' and go "this is enough, please send the Dragon and get us home"

> wonder if the 2 astronauts will ever just 'call it'

The forcing function is Crew 9, currently scheduled to launch no earlier than 24 September [1]. If they don’t want to fly Starliner, the face saving move is to delay signing off until then.

[1] https://www.space.com/space-force-1st-guardian-from-own-laun...

That decision has to be made well before the launch. Crew 9 has to launch with fewer crew onboard. The Boeing crew needs Space-X spacesuits made for them because Boeing's suits don't fit in Space-X seats.[1] What cargo goes up with Crew 9 would change.

Are those suits being made? Can they be made without the wearers present for fitting? Did someone think of this before the Boeing launch?

[1] https://jalopnik.com/stranded-astronauts-now-have-to-deal-wi...

Fairly certain the other user is misinformed and the general media reporting on this entire affair has continued to be so awful as to blow up the fact that the two capsules use incompatible IVA plug-ins.

If they choose to return on Crew-9, the associated IVA suits do exist and would be sent up. They already have both astronauts' measurements and have either made/adjusted a set for them, or have found ones that would be a good enough fit.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/yes-nasa-really-could-...

Eric Berger and Arstechnica in general has a fairly reliable track record on space related reporting. So I would trust them more than all the "big" outlets which can't seem to live in their own reality.

> If they choose to return on Crew-9, the associated IVA suits do exist and would be sent up

This is SpaceX’s pitch. NASA hasn’t accepted it yet. The novel risks could favour using the Starliner suits in Dragon or no suit at all.

There's no benefit to using Starliner suits in Dragon since they can't be plugged in, and there is no risk to using Dragon IVA suits that are based on the measurements they already have of both of them.

> no benefit to using Starliner suits in Dragon

Of course there is. They already have them and we know they fit.

We also know, by the way, the measurements of the Starliner and Dragon ports. Making an adapter is theoretically easier than making a new suit. If you don’t think so, then map every argument for that scepticism to remotely tailoring a spacesuit.

> no risk to using Dragon IVA suits that are based on the measurements they already have of both of them

Measurements can change or be faulty or be critical at different parts of the body for different suit designs. “No risk” doesn’t exist in aerospace.

They should send up the new suits and then evaluate.

> Are those suits being made? Can they be made without the wearers present for fitting?

No. They'd have to come down not wearing suits.

Uh oh.

I wonder how quickly SpaceX could scramble an unscheduled Dragon launch if asked to? Do they have a completed Dragon waiting to go?

Wikipedia says they have 4 Crew Dragons in service, 1 under construction. - Crew 8 is docked at ISS - Polaris Dawn is on the launch pad scheduled for Monday. It is configured for a space walk, so I think that means it doesn't have the ISS docking adapter installed - Crew 9 is launching in September (with 2 or 4 astronauts) - Fram2 mission is in December. I think it is going to have the viewing cupola installed, so no port

I don't know how fast a Dragon could be refitted with the docking adapter so maybe the other 2 aren't available on any sort of emergency basis.

The emergency plan for Butch and Suni until Crew 9 gets there is either YOLO Starliner or lay on the bulkhead of Crew 8 below the 4 astronaut seats, not wearing space suits since the Starliner suits can't be hooked up to Dragon.

> wonder how quickly SpaceX could scramble an unscheduled Dragon launch if asked to?

The better question might be how much SpaceX would charge for having a Crew Dragon with ISS docking adapters standing ready for launch within one week. I'd guess that would cost SpaceX less than $100mm. (The actual mission would be billed at usual rates. You're paying for optionality.)

Last-minute rescue from orbit simply hasn't been something our species has had the technology to do until recently. (Space Shuttle needed 30 days on paper.)

There are four Crew Dragon. One is attached to ISS and one is preparing for Crew 9. The other two are scheduled for commercial flights, one launching in a few days. The later one would have be re-scheduled or do fast turnaround to come up with spare Dragon. There is also one for Crew 10 under construction.

The other question is how long it takes to make Crew Dragon ready.

Yes, but it's been sold to a billionaire for a joyride.[1] Launches next Monday.

[1] https://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/spacex-polaris-dawn-mi...

I wonder how the test pilots are going. If I were them I'd be a little stoked to get the extra time on station.

I'm sure they aren't exactly angry that they are stuck there, but, they were planning on a 9-day tour.

They are missing spouses, birthdays, weddings, they will miss thanksgiving and christmas with their families.

I'm sure it's great to be there and they are lucky to be there, but, it must also suck to miss out, especially unexpectedly and when you have no real choice in the matter.

I'd give up the rest of all of those holidays to be a human that lives any part of their lives in any part of space

You already are - space is where the Earth is. You are in a very nice and very inhabitable part of it, BTW.

Space travelers for the next several thousand years will yearn for the comforts of Earth (until we create habitats which are as nice)… it’s going to be a rough and tumble frontier for ages

If you haven't read The Green Hills of Earth (1947), this might be a good time. Fair warning, you might find something a little stuck in your throat near the end.

It's probably type 2 fun. Both of them have families, with one having kids:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_E._Wilmore#Personal_life

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunita_Williams#Personal_life

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