When Linus made that comment cmov was like a 6 cycle latency. For the last decade it has been 1 cycle, and I don't think there is any scenario where cmov is now slower than a branch.
I've definitely measured scenarios where cmov/branchless is slower than a branch for a given algorithm. Especially if the branchless version is doing a bit more work to avoid the branch.
I haven't seen cmov lose to a conditional in a few years (on very recent Intel hardware). Maybe there might be some circumstances where in creates a loop carried dependency that wrecks the optimizer, but I haven't seen one in a minute.
To be fair - cmov versions often involve some extra compution to get things in a form where cmov can be used, and I often just opt for the well predicted conditional since those couple extra instructions to set up the value to move can be avoided.