I would love to finally see some real competition with iOS in the tablet space, but my feeling is that this isn't it. It's Windows Phone 7, bigger. And that worked beautifully for Apple, but nobody has been buying Windows Phone.
I personally use TeX for docs, mutt for e-mail and don't really use spreadsheets, so I'm quite indifferent about this.
Metro is bundled with an OS that is essentially assured a crap-tonne of sales before it's launched. It'll also have more exposure (in retail space etc) than every other laptop and desktop out there.
Not saying it's a slam dunk, but if I were Apple or Google I'd be concerned.
Windows Phone wasn't Microsoft's first dance on the smartphone floor. In fact they were one of the very first on smartphones with Windows CE, heralded as a sure thing because it was "bundled with an OS" with some sort of desktop synergy that assured world dominance.
We know how that turned out. Apple and RIM ate their lunch, and the synergy with the desktop thing was an anchor instead of a lift.
Firstly, Windows CE was demonstrably years behind tech-wise - even a causal grandmother consumer could see the difference between an iPhone and a CE device. That's not the case here: this looks (to casual eyes) like an iPad equivalent.
Secondly that time round they went at it by making the phone alude to the Windows brand. Here they're using the Windows sales (which are assured) to get Metro in front of users.
Thirdly they're now copying a proven thing (the iPad). Last time they were half-leading the charge for semi-smartphones, and never figured out the right tech to evangelise people. They've always been better at copying than at innovating afresh.
Forthly they're all in. They basically screwed the desktop OS over to put tablets front and centre. All their considerable weight and spending power will be behind this - in shops up and down the land.
Of course it's not over yet. But if they play this right, it could be very interesting game indeed.
- Massive Windows 8 sales numbers are far from guaranteed.
- They've diverged pretty radically from the iPad UI. I'm happy to see this, but this also means they can't count on similarities to the iPad to drive sales.
This may in fact turn out to be a hit but I'm not persuaded by your arguments.