Imec demonstrates logic and DRAM structures using High NA EUV Lithography
imec-int.com
imec-int.com
If this turns out to be a dead end it'll be a big problem for ASML at the first instance. Also it's going to be good news for China since the technology gap will not be opening further.
At the end of the day it'll come down to how much and how fast 18A can help recoup what they're spending right now.
What I'd be more interested in is, does this also mean bigger/denser L1-L3 caches?
Just a semi-engineer here, not a semi-conductor engineer, but probably not. L1-L3 are on the die, so you'd just be making those at the same time as the rest of your CPU die, so they'll be made with the same process as that is. Which, once that process is the high NA UV, means yes, denser L1-L3. Though I wouldn't be too surprised to see an L3/L4 chiplet made with an older process for low-end CPUs... which might mean smaller cache?
IMEC has just taken steps to prove that High NA can work. They are a European semiconductor R&D company; they don't operate any commercial fabs of their own.
The economic significance is that current leading edge processes have to use multiple patterning with normal NA machines to achieve the necessary resolution. Multiple patterning means multiple exposures with different masks on the same spot creating interference patterns. This halves / quarters etc. throughput and decreases yields (every exposure needs to be flawless).
High NA means you just need one exposure and mask (per layer).
At that point making smaller patterns might not be the biggest issue. Vias are becoming s bottleneck and proven to be hard to scale down. If we cannot fibd a new way to open vias reliably and with low resistence it will be bottleneck for scaling down.