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Comment by alecco | Hacker News Reader

  • NVIDIA $NVDA:    -11%
  • Google $GOOGL:   -11%
  • Apple $AAPL:     -10%
  • Amazon $AMZN:    -10%
  • Meta $META:      -10%
  • Tesla $TSLA:     -10%
  • Microsoft $MSFT:  -9%

https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1820355633008296324#m

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At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?

-- Scott McNealy, CEO of Sun Microsystems, ~2002

Nvidia price is 33 times revenue. ;)

Yes, if this really unwinds, there’ll be a lot of surprised people.

Not my base case, though. Reflexivity would be really bad for the economy. Regulators won’t allow it.

> to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends

My understanding is that a lot of (tech) investors these days do not want dividends, they want growth.

All Mag7s are still very expensive, but you gotta nibble at the best names when you get an opportunity.

Fire sale!

Oh cool, five in that list are "Top holdings" of my pension fund.

Which has been hitting dingers for a decade.

Meh....

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